Shocker: Iran's latest response to world powers on nuke program "falls short"

Jihad Watch.org/

And around we go. "APNewsBreak: Iran nuclear offer falls short," by George Jahn for the Associated Press, February 23:

VIENNA - Iran has formally set out its terms for giving up most of its cache of enriched uranium in a confidential document -- and the conditions fall short of what has been demanded by the United States and other world powers.

The document -- seen by The Associated Press on Tuesday -- says Tehran is ready to hand over the bulk of its stockpile, as called for under a deal brokered by the International Atomic Energy Agency and endorsed by the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany.

But Iran adds that it must simultaneously receive fuel rods for its research reactor in return, and that such an exchange must take place on Iranian territory.

The Iranian offer was sure to be rejected by the six powers, which have waited for nearly six months for such an official answer.

The United States and others fear Iran's nuclear program is geared toward making nuclear weapons, while Tehran claims it is simply to provide more power for its growing population. The United Nations has slapped sanctions on Iran for its defiance on nuclear issues.

Ali Asghar Soltanieh, the chief Iranian delegate to the IAEA, told the AP the letter was "formally reflecting" his country's position, which has been expressed to the IAEA and to the media in various forms.

The U.S. and its allies have previously said there can be no significant deviation from the original deal, which would commit Iran to shipping out its nuclear material first and then waiting up to a year for it to be turned into fuel for its reactor, which makes medical isotopes.

The letter -- dated Feb. 18 and addressed to International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano -- says Iran is "still seeking to purchase the required fuel in cash." However, it was unclear how Iran would do that, because there are no stockpiles of fuel specifically made for its reactor.

Iran is ready to exchange its low-enriched uranium for the fuel rods "simultaneously in one package or several packages in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran," the letter says.

World powers insist that Iran ship out most of its enriched uranium first then wait for the fuel rods because that would delay Iran's ability to make a nuclear weapon by leaving it with too little material to make a warhead.

But Iran's continued rejection of the deal appears to have worked in its favor.

When the agreement was drawn up nearly six months ago, it foresaw Iran exporting about 1.2 tons of low-enriched material for further enrichment in Russia to near 20 percent and then reprocessing in France into fuel rods. Back then, that would have been about 70 percent of the Iranian stockpile.

But Iran has continued to enrich since, and now has about 2 tons of low-enriched uranium.

That means that even if Iran now agreed to ship the requisite 1.2 tons, it would still be left with about 800 kilograms (1,765 pounds) -- about two-thirds of what is needed to enrich further to produce weapons-grade uranium....

Posted by Marisol on February 23, 2010 8:34 AM

Violence Reported as Crowds Gather in Tehran

By NAZILA FATHI and ALAN COWELL

Published: February 11, 2010

Huge crowds gathered in central Tehran on Thursday to mark the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran as opposition Web sites carried reports of shots and tear gas being fired at protesters and attacks on opposition leaders.

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Irib, via Aptn/Associated Press

An image made from video provided by Iranian State TV of pro-government demonstrators in Tehran on Thursday.

Related

Arrests by Iran Are a Bid to Quell Wide Protests (February 10, 2010)

Iran Makes First Batch of Highly Enriched Uranium (February 11, 2010)

Times Topics: Iran | Nuclear Weapons

The reports could not be confirmed independently because the Iranian authorities imposed severe restrictions on news coverage since last June’s flawed presidential elections.

The anniversary of the 1979 revolution has become a test of strength between the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and an opposition movement that took root after last June’s flawed elections, creating the biggest political challenge since the fall of Shah Reza Mohammed Pahlavi.

In an effort to disrupt communications and head off huge opposition demonstrations, the authorities on Wednesday drastically slowed Internet service in Iran and shut down text messaging services. One official said that Gmail, the Google e-mail service, would be blocked.

But news reports indicated that the crackdown on communications had not kept protesters off the streets.

An Iranian opposition Web site said security forces fired shots and tear gas at supporters of an opposition leader, Mir Hussein Moussavi, as they mounted a counter-rally in central Tehran. Thousands of pro-government demonstrators were reported marching toward Azadi Square in central Tehran.

“Security forces opened fired at protesters and fired tear gas in central Tehran,” Reuters quoted the Green Voice Web site as saying, citing witnesses.

Another opposition Web site said that security forces attacked an, opposition leader, Mehdi Karoubi, when he attended a rally marking the anniversary, Reuters said.

“Karoubi was attacked by security forces in central Tehran... they shattered his car’s windows ... Karoubi was not seriously injured,” the Web site Jaras reported. Jaras also said security forces attacked former President Mohammad Khatami and arrested his brother and his brother’s wife, who is a granddaughter of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeni.

Other news reports from Tehran on Thursday said tens of thousands of pro-government demonstrators had taken to the streets to mark the revolution in 1979 that toppled the shah ushered in the theocracy of Ayatollah Khomeini.

State television showed the government supporters carrying banners as they marched toward Azadi Square to hear a speech by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, The Associated Press reported.

The television showed big crowds in the square waving Iranian flags and pictures of Ayatollah Khomeini and his successor as supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Such anniversaries are traditional days of celebration. But since an uprising began in June after the disputed presidential election, protesters have used the cover of such public events to take to the streets. And soon after 10 p.m. Wednesday in Tehran, forbidden cries of “God is great” could be heard echoing from the city’s rooftops, a sign that opposition protests, the first since December 27, would go ahead despite the government’s efforts to thwart them.

The authorities have warned that they intend to confront protesters harshly. Witnesses quoted by The A.P. said the police deployed hundreds of officers in central Tehran to block protests. At least eight people were killed by the security forces in protests in December, and two men linked to the opposition were hanged this month.

The opposition movement has relied heavily on the Internet, using text messaging, e-mail and videos to spread information about the demonstrations and the crackdown by the government.

It was not immediately clear if Gmail would be blocked permanently, but users inside Iran said that because of the extremely slow speed of Internet service, they had been unable to open Gmail or the Yahoo e-mail service for the last week.

Google confirmed “a sharp drop in traffic” that could not be attributed to equipment failure on its end. “Whenever we encounter blocks in our services we try to resolve them as quickly as possible,” a spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker, said, “because we strongly believe that people everywhere should have the ability to communicate freely online. Sadly, sometimes it is not within our control.”

Some communications experts believe that the authorities’ efforts to block Gmail could be related to Google encryption, which prevents the government from reading e-mail. Yahoo and Hotmail have not been similarly affected, one monitor said.

Whatever its motivation, the government described its e-mail disruptions as well intentioned. Saeed Mahdyun, a telecommunications official, told the semiofficial ILNA news agency that Gmail would be blocked to encourage users to switch to local e-mail services.

The government announced last week that it was starting a national e-mail service to replace foreign ones, as a way to build “trust” with the people. But the opposition says most people use Gmail and Yahoo precisely because they are suspicious of local e-mail services, which they strongly suspect are monitored by the government.

Communications experts doubted the effectiveness of the government’s campaign. “Asking the entire country to switch their e-mail service is a tall order, even by Iranian standards,” wrote Robert Faris, research director at the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard, in an e-mail message.

Continuing a crackdown that has produced dozens of arrests in recent weeks, the authorities also arrested at least six members of the Bahai faith in Tehran on Wednesday, the Committee of Human Rights Reporters reported.

The government has outlawed the Bahai faith since the 1979 revolution. A group of seven Bahai leaders were put on trial on Jan. 12 on charges of threatening national security.

Nazila Fathi reported from Toronto, and Alan Cowell from Paris. Neil MacFarquhar contributed reporting from New York, and Ashlee Vance from San Francisco.

OBAMA WOWS IRAN ON EVE OF TEHERAN'S BIG DAY: US PLACES NEW SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS.......

Tundra Tabloids.......Thursday, February 11, 2010

Obama: I hated to do it Moody, but it's politics

Moody: This latest aggressive move really 'shivers me timbers'

Well, today is the big day, the 31st year since the fall of the more moderate government and rule of the Shah of Iran, and the day that spider monkey Ahmadinejad is going to wow the world. Pro-government stooge supporters have already taken to the streets as this report states:

Iranians begin rallies marking 1979 revolution

TEHRAN, Iran (al-AP) - Hundreds of thousands of pro-government demonstrators gathered in the central square of Tehran to mark the 31st anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution as Internet speeds dropped dramatically around the capital in government efforts to foil counter-demonstrations.

State television showed images of thousands upon thousands carrying often identical banners marching along the city's broad avenues toward the central Azadi, or freedom square, to attend a speech by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In Azadi Square itself, massive crowds waved Iranian flags and carried pictures of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic state, and his successor as supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The opposition has vowed to stage counter demonstrations, but eyewitnesses say police have deployed hundreds of forces in central Tehran to confront them.

Iranian authorities again tried to squeeze off text messaging and Web links in attempts to cripple protest organizers. Internet service was sharply slowed, mobile phone service widely cut and there were repeated disruptions in popular instant messaging services such as Google chat.

Fox news is reporting that there were shots fired

Clashes Reported in Iran During Revolution Rally

TEHRAN, Iran — Witnesses say security forces fired paint balls to disperse anti-government protesters in one of the first clashes during ceremonies to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Witnesses say that riot police fired the paint-filled balls after protesters began to chant opposition slogans in Sadeqieh Square, which is about a half-mile from a huge pro-government gathering where President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered a speech on Thursday.

Witnesses say there were no apparent injuries among the several hundred protesters.

Hundreds of thousands of pro-government demonstrators gathered Thursday in one of Tehran's main squares to mark the 31st anniversary of Iran's revolution as Internet speeds dropped dramatically around the capital in government efforts to foil counter-demonstrations.

State television showed images of thousands upon thousands carrying often identical banners marching along the city's broad avenues toward the central Azadi, or freedom square, to attend a speech by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In Azadi Square itself, massive crowds waved Iranian flags and carried pictures of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic state, and his successor as supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

There is still no news of the big wow the Iranian government was promising the world, the day is still young though. The Tundra Tabloids will be following the develpments as the day proceeds. KGS

Gentle diplomacy with Iran will not work

THE BOSTON GLOBE.COM
By Jeff Jacoby

ON SUNDAY, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered his country’s nuclear agency to begin enriching uranium to a purity of 20 percent, well beyond the level needed to fuel a nuclear power plant. The following day, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that Tehran was going to “punch’’ Western nations “in a way that will leave them stunned.’’

Welcome to Year Two of Barack Obama’s “engagement’’ with Iran.

The president’s outreach to the brutal theocracy in Tehran began in the first moments of his presidency.

“To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent,’’ he said in his inaugural address, “we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.’’ Tehran responded by calling Obama “the hand of Satan in a new sleeve.’’ A spokesman for Khamenei sneered: “The Great Satan now has a black face.’’

That initial exchange set the pattern for the year that followed.

Over and over, Obama has sought to “extend a hand’’ to Iran’s rulers - taping a message of goodwill for Nowruz, the Iranian New Year; remaining silent after the rigged Iranian election in June; insisting that “dialogue between our two countries’’ would go on despite the government’s bloody crackdown on peaceful protesters - and each time the regime has pointedly declined to unclench its fist. Khamenei’s reply to Obama’s New Year greeting was to accuse the president of having “insulted the Islamic Republic of Iran from the first day.’’ He spurned Obama’s private overtures with public contempt; to negotiate with the United States, he said in November, would be “naïve and perverted.’’

Tehran has been equally contemptuous of the deadlines set by the administration for Iran to respond to international concerns about its nuclear program. Washington can announce “as many deadlines as they want, we don’t care,’’ Ahmadinejad told supporters in December. And why would they care, when each deadline has come and gone with Iran’s refusal to cooperate triggering no credible response?

For a year, the Obama administration bent over backward to show that the looming threat of a nuclear-armed Iran could be defused through patient engagement. Iran’s despots spent that year enlarging their uranium-enrichment capabilities, flouting international law, perfecting a new ballistic missile, pouring weapons and money into terrorist groups abroad, and arresting, torturing, and hanging dissidents at home.

Tehran’s apocalyptic rulers have not unclenched their fists, and no amount of goodwill is going to persuade them to do so. Perhaps that wasn’t clear to Obama a year ago. Now it is clear to almost everyone.

The closer Iran’s regime gets to acquiring nuclear weapons, the more critical it becomes to ostracize and change that regime. It isn’t only hawkish right-wingers who think so. In a recent New York Times essay, Alan J. Kuperman, director of Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Program at the University of Texas - as well as a former aide to such congressional liberals as Charles Schumer and Thomas Foley - called for American air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Middle East Forum’s Daniel Pipes, urging Obama to order such strikes before it is too late, notes that a majority of Americans, as measured in recent polls, favors using force to keep Iran from going nuclear.

In recent weeks, both houses of Congress passed bills imposing stiff sanctions on Iran, particularly by cutting off its access to the gasoline imports on which it heavily depends. The legislation passed unanimously in the Senate, and by a 412-to-12 vote in the House. Not much in Washington these days commands such overwhelming and bipartisan support.

It may still be possible to neutralize the threat of a nuclear armed Iran without military force, but we will never find out unless the president jettisons his fantasy of engagement. Millions of Iranian dissidents yearn for a decent government. The unabashed support of the Obama administration, backed up by very tough sanctions, would powerfully aid their cause.

The mullahs will never willingly unclench their fists. Most Americans acknowledge that reality. It’s time the president did too.

Jeff Jacoby can be reached at jacoby@globe.com.

© Copyright 2010 Globe Newspaper Company.

As Iran protests loom, Obama sticks to a cautious script

Posted on Tuesday, February 9, 2010
By Warren P. Strobel | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — At first blush, it seems like a godsend for U.S. foreign policy: a tenacious Iranian opposition, democratic in name at least, is challenging a regime that has caused the United States no end of headaches over the last 30 years.

As huge new street protests loom in Tehran on Thursday, however, the 31st anniversary of Iran's Islamic revolution, the Obama administration is keeping its distance from the "green movement" that sprouted during last June's disputed presidential elections.

President Barack Obama and his aides have criticized Iran's human rights record in the face of the regime's security crackdown, with its widespread arrests and several executions. They've offered little encouragement and no aid to the protesters.

Senior U.S. officials expressed empathy for the protestors in interviews with McClatchy. But given the sorry history of American intervention in Iran, anything the U.S. government did to try to help would do more harm than good, they said. In addition, the Obama administration seems leery of banking its Iran policy on a protest movement that could sputter out or be crushed.

"We're in for a stalemate . . . an extended one," predicted a senior State Department official, who requested anonymity because of the issue's sensitivity. The opposition will persist "but won't be capable of bringing down the government."

The regime, led by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, has so far been unwilling to order a full-scale, Tiananmen Square-like massacre of the protesters. "The government is concerned about crossing a limit where they risk losing the loyalty of their own security forces," the official said.

Defying government warnings, reform movement leaders have called on supporters to surge into the streets on Thursday, 31 years after the Feb. 11, 1979, collapse of the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran's regime. The government is expected to mass tens of thousands of its supporters well.

In parallel to the looming confrontation, Iran and western countries are in an increasingly tense standoff over Tehran's nuclear program. Iran on Tuesday said it had followed through on its threat a day earlier to begin enriching uranium to nearly 20 percent purity — closer to the level needed to fuel a nuclear bomb. Iran insists its nuclear work is for peaceful purposes.

In a White House appearance Tuesday, Obama said the United States and its allies are developing a "significant regime of sanctions" on Iran over its refusal of a nuclear offer made last October.

"They have made their choice for now, although the door is still open" for talks, he said.

Obama came to office determined to try and strike a deal with Iran on the nuclear issue. He's repeatedly offered talks, writing at least two letters to Khamanei and authorizing the highest-level U.S.-Iranian encounter in three decades.

By all accounts, the White House was caught off guard when supporters of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi poured into the streets last summer, braving attacks from state security forces to protest an election they said was stolen by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

As protests have erupted since, the Obama team has stuck to a carefully worded script. The United States has demanded that Iran adhere to international human rights norms, a position that allows the White House to say it is not singling out Iran or goading on the protesters.

That was the gist of a joint U.S.-European Union statement issued Monday, in advance of the Feb. 11 anniversary. "We are particularly concerned by the potential for further violence and repression during the coming days," it said.

Several Iran experts, while acknowledging that U.S. intervention might backfire, said Obama is being too cautious.

All efforts to foment political change in Iran from the outside "have been a complete, utter failure," said Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council. Still, he said, "the silence on the human rights front is coming across as extremely strange."

The risk, Parsi said, is that both the Iranian regime and the protesters will conclude that Obama is so eager for a nuclear deal, he's willing to play down human rights.

Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, a reformist member of Iran's parliament from 2000 to 2004, said Obama distrusts Mousavi and other "green movement" leaders because they, too, support Iran's nuclear development.

"I want to say this is wrong," Haghighatjoo said, adding that nuclear technology in the hands of Iranian democrats is much different than the same technology controlled by Iran's theocratic regime. She spoke at an event at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

Inside Washington's Beltway, the fate of Iran's regime has prompted a bitter verbal battle.

Those pushing for more action include prominent "neoconservatives" who led the push for the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.

But one of them, Robert Kagan, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he's not calling for a U.S. invasion of Iran, and that the situation there should be compared not to Iraq, but to the former Soviet Union, the Philippines or South Africa before their revolutions.

He also noted that many other foreign policy experts have hardened their position on Iran as well.

"I believe that the two sides (in Iran) are in a death struggle," he said. "The only question is are we helping the opposition, or are we not."

MORE FROM MCCLATCHY

Opposition Groups: Iranian Professor �Killed by Arab Hitman�

Fox News.com

Sunday, January 17, 2010

An Iranian university professor killed last week by a blast from a remote-controlled bomb strapped to a parked motorcycle may have been the victim of an Arab hitman, according to opposition groups.

The murder of Masoud Ali Mohammadi, 50, a supporter of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the opposition leader, has been blamed by the Tehran regime on “mercenaries” financed by Israel and Washington because of his role as a nuclear physicist.

However, opposition groups who monitor Hezbollah, the militant Lebanese movement, in Tehran, claim that a member of the group, known by his pseudonym “Abu Nasser”, was photographed at the scene of the explosion in Tehran’s affluent Gheytarih suburb.

A German-based opposition group released a photograph of a man of similar appearance who, it alleges, was one of the pro-regime demonstrators who stormed Mousavi’s office in Tehran after disputed presidential elections last June.

The opposition claims the Revolutionary Guard uses Hezbollah operatives for some bloodthirsty tasks because they have a reputation for ruthlessness, and are outsiders and can always be blamed as opposition sympathisers.

Tehran has gone to great lengths to suggest that Mohammadi was killed because he was a nuclear scientist, implying that he was part of Iran’s programme to develop nuclear weapons.

However, Majid Mohammadi, a visiting scholar at the Institute for Global Studies at Stony Brook University, New York, and also a friend, said: “He was not a nuclear physicist. He was just a physicist. I believe the Iranian [official] media highlight this word ‘nuclear’ to imply he was killed by the Israelis or Americans.”

Click here for more from the Sunday Times.

Bomb Blast Kills Nuclear Physicist in Tehran

European Pressphoto AgencyA view of the scene after the bomb blast in Tehran on Tuesday.

NEW YORK TIMES
By ALAN COWELL

PARIS — A bomb attached to a motorcycle killed an Iranian professor of nuclear physics outside his home in northern Tehran on Tuesday, state media reported, blaming the United States and Israel.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack. One state broadcaster, IRIB, quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying that “in the initial investigation, signs of the triangle of wickedness by the Zionist regime, America and their hired agents are visible in the terrorist act,” Reuters reported.

The authorities called the killing of the scientist, Massoud Ali Mohammadi, an assassination carried out by terrorists, but did not say who was believed to be responsible. The professor taught neutron physics at Tehran University, the English-language Press TV said, but it was not clear whether he was part of Iran’s contentious nuclear enrichment program.

The broadcaster called the professor a “staunch supporter of the Islamic Revolution” of 1979 that overthrew the Shah and initiated three decades of theocratic rule.

Since flawed presidential elections last June, Iran has been gripped by its deepest political crisis since 1979, pitting supporters of the victorious President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against opponents who call his regime illegitimate.

After brutal crackdowns, the authorities late last year broadened efforts to stifle dissent to encompass the educational system, hinting that dissident professors would be purged. A number of hard-line clerics have called for the university humanities curriculums to be Islamized further. But it was not immediately known whether Tuesday’s killing was related to that dispute.

The reported bombing came just days after pro-government demonstrators shot at the armored car of the Iran’s most outspoken opposition leader, Mehdi Karroubi, last Thursday, his Saham News Web site reported.

That attack appeared to reflect growing frustration that the crackdown in recent months had failed to stop the opposition from lashing out at the country’s leaders and staging intermittent protests that have brought tens of thousands of demonstrators into the streets.

Press TV reported on Tuesday that Mr. Mohammadi, 50, the nuclear professor, was killed close to his home in the Qeytariyeh neighborhood of northern Tehran when a bomb attached to a motorcycle exploded near his car.

“Iran’s police and security bodies are investigating the terrorist case to identify those behind it,” Press TV reported and quoted Tehran’s prosecutor general, Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi, as saying no suspect had so far been arrested.

Iranian television footage showed cleaners sweeping up debris and hosing down the street after the blast shattered windows and smeared the sidewalk with blood and detritus. The footage also showed what seemed to be a corpse in a zippered body-bag on a stretcher.

The Web site of Iran’s state television declared the bombing a “terrorist act by counterrevolutionaries and elements of arrogance,” a reference to the United States. Security forces are investigating, The A.P. quoted the report as saying.

The United States and western allies have been pressing Iran to halt its nuclear enrichment program, which Tehran insists is solely for civilian purposes to produce electricity. But the West fears Iran is seeking to build a nuclear weapon that would threaten Israel and upset the regional power balance.

According to The Associated Press, Mr. Mohammadi was the author of several articles on quantum and theoretical physics in scientific journals but did not appear to have a high-profile role in Iran’s nuclear program. He received his doctorate from Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, The A.P. said.

Last year, another Iranian nuclear scientist, Shahram Amiri, disappeared during a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia and Iran accused the United States of helping to kidnap him.

Speaking Monday at the start of a nine-day trip across the Pacific, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the United States and its allies were discussing financial sanctions that would appear to be aimed at the Revolutionary Guards and other political players in the country if diplomacy fails to overcome the growing tensions with Iran.

“It is clear that there is a relatively small group of decision- makers inside Iran,” she said. “They are in both political and commercial relationships, and if we can create a sanctions track that targets those who actually make the decisions, we think that is a smarter way to do sanctions.”

But she added, “All that is yet to be decided upon.”

Two Big Developments: Hillary Announces Start of Sanctions Push, Arab Poll Says Iran is Bigger Threat than Israel.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

by Barry Rubin

It may well be that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has given the signal for the new phase of U.S. policy toward Iran. On December 14, she said that the engagement policy with Tehran hadn’t worked and now it needs to press for additional sanctions.

Either this is her attempt to lobby for a tougher line against other administration officials or it's the long-awaited start of the sanctions made necessary by the looming of the administration’s own end-of-the-year deadline to get a deal with Iran or impose more sanctions.

Trying to negotiate, she said, has "produced very little" so "additional pressure is going to be called for."

Her phrasing was interesting, almost as if she was taking a poke at rivals in the administration who are reluctant to take action. "I don't think anyone can doubt that our outreach has produced very little in terms of any kind of a positive response from the Iranians," Clinton said, as if daring someone in the White House to disagree?

So what is the administration going to do? Try to get the UN and EU to support more sanctions. Here the administration likes to claim that its popularity and patient (arguably too patient) coalition-building will bring broad support.

Yet there’s another development that shows the opposite may be true. An important meeting to discuss sanctions, set for December 22, has been postponed at China’s request. As an AP account put it:

“Russia in recent days has moved away from suggesting it would support [sanctions]. And recent statements from Chinese officials indicate that Beijing has not changed its traditional opposition to new sanctions. While Russia and China signed on to three previous sets of UN sanctions against Iran, they also forced their Western Security Council partners to water them down substantially.”

Note that the administration keeps claiming that Moscow and Peking are on board. We are going to see something quite different when the negotiations get serious in January and February.

Buried in a paragraph of an obscure article is explosively important news. A survey of people in 18 Arabic-speaking countries commissioned by a Qatari group—and not fully released yet-- found that a majority see Iran as a bigger threat to their security than Israel and one-third believing Iran is as big a threat as Israel.

This is of historic importance and, of course, reflects reality. This doesn’t mean the Arab attitude toward Israel is going to change drastically, but it does indicate that the real main demand of Arabs toward the West is not making instant Israel-Palestinian peace but protecting them from Iran’s extremist Islamist regime. Western policymakers should take note.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal.

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

The Enduring Iran-Syria-Hezbollah Axis Part I

Friday, December 18, 2009

The Enduring Iran-Syria-Hezbollah Axis Part I

by Michael Rubin

1st part of 2

The Obama administration would like to move Syria into the camp of more moderate Arab states, but there is scant evidence that Syria is willing to give up its support for terrorist organizations. Like Iran, it remains a destabilizing and dangerous force in the region.

Key points in this Outlook:

* The Lebanese and Israeli border is calmer today than during the 2006 war, but the potential for regional conflict is great.

* Both the Syrian and Iranian governments have used Hezbollah to conduct proxy warfare against Israel.

* The Obama administration has tried to move Syria from a rejectionist state into the more moderate Arab camp, but there is no evidence that the engagement policy has worked.

The 2006 war between Lebanon and Israel took not only outside observers by surprise, but also Israel and the government of Lebanon. A day after an operation in which Hezbollah killed five Israeli soldiers and captured two others, the Israel Defense Forces struck Lebanese targets as far north as Beirut. Over subsequent days, the Israeli Air Force bombed Hezbollah-controlled neighborhoods in Beirut and struck targets in the country's

north. U.S., European, and Arab diplomats scrambled to prevent the spread of hostilities.

While Arab governments remained conspicuously silent, unwilling to support Hezbollah publicly, if at all, Iranian authorities egged on the militia. Speaking six days after the war began, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, the speaker of Iran's parliament, declared, "To Hassan Nasrallah [Hezbollah's secretary general] we say, well done. This religious scholar roars like a lion, and the blood of Imam [Ruhollah] Khomeini rages in his veins."[1] Iran's supreme leader encouraged Hezbollah to keep fighting. According to Nasrallah, Ali Khamenei sent him a letter two days after the war began, which stated, "You have a hard war ahead, but if you resist, you will triumph."[2]

United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution 1701 restored calm, but only a tenuous one. While the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) returned to Lebanon, it failed to prevent the resupply of Hezbollah with an arsenal even more advanced than before the 2006 conflict. The Lebanese and Israeli border may be calm today, but the potential for regional conflict has only grown. If a new conflict erupts, it likely will be deadlier and harder to contain to Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah now possesses missiles capable of striking not only Haifa, but also Tel Aviv.[3]

The Obama administration, meanwhile, has reached out diplomatically to both Syria and Iran in the belief that a less confrontational approach to conflict resolution might lead the two states to reconsider their rejectionist behavior. It has not worked. While Tehran and Damascus may welcome the incentives inherent in U.S. engagement, both states continue to use proxies to pursue radical aims and undercut stability. Iran may be Hezbollah's chief patron, but Syria is the lynchpin that makes Iranian support for foreign fighters possible. While Israel may be the immediate target of the Iran-Syria nexus, the partnership threatens broader U.S. interests.

A Proxy Is Born

Hezbollah formed against the backdrop of Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon as an Iranian proxy. Ali Mohtashimi, Iran's ambassador to Syria from 1982 to 1985, discussed the group's beginnings in an interview with the Iranian newspaper Shargh on August 3, 2008:

After the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Ayatollah Khomeini changed his mind about sending large forces to Syria and Lebanon. . . . I was really worried about Syria and Lebanon. I went to Tehran and met with Ayatollah Khomeini. As I was worried about Lebanon and enthusiastic about the idea of sending forces to Syria and Lebanon, I started talking about our responsibilities and what was going on in Lebanon. The imam cooled me down and said the forces we send to Syria and Lebanon would need huge logistical support. . . . The only remaining way is to train the Shi'a men there, and so Hezbollah was born.[4]

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) supported the new group as it fought or co-opted other Shia militias in southern Lebanon. The Iranian government is not shy about credit. On May 14, 2009, the London-based pan-Arab daily Ash-Sharq al-Awsat published an interview with Mohammad Hassan Akhtari, the Islamic Republic's ambassador to Syria from 1986 to 1997, and again from 2005 through 2007.

Correspondent Manal Lufti described Akhtari as "the operational father" of Hezbollah, "engineer of the special relationship" between Syria and Iran, and "coordinator of Iran's relations with Palestinian organizations in Damascus," groups listed annually as terrorist organizations in the State Department's Country Reports on Terrorism.[5] Indeed, according to Ash-Sharq al-Awsat, "the Iranian embassy in Damascus became the most important Ira-nian embassy in the world. It represented something akin to a 'regional center' for Iran's diplomatic activities that extended from Damascus to Beirut and the Palestinian territories and became privy to files on several matters, chief of which was Iran's relations with Syria, Hezbollah, [and] the Palestinian organizations."[6]

Iran and Syria worked jointly to unify the Shia who, through the early 1980s, were divided between Amal and Hezbollah. Akhtari described how he and Ghazi Kanaan, the Syrian intelligence chief in Lebanon, met over months to manage reconciliation, which ultimately led to the victory of Hezbollah, the more religious of the two groups.[7] While Syria cultivated a reputation for secularism among many Western academics, Akhtari describes a different regime.[8] "The late President Hafiz al-Asad trusted Ayatollah Khomeini and respected him. He was one of those who believed that any opposition to the Islamic Republic in any shape or form and under whatever pretext amounted to treason to the Arab, Islamic, and Palestinian causes."[9] By 1988, Hezbollah was the dominant force not only in southern Lebanon, where it painted itself as the vanguard of resistance against Israel's occupation, but also in Beirut, which would remain under Syrian occupation for the next seventeen years.

Hezbollah thrived under Syrian occupation. Both the Syrian and Iranian governments used Hezbollah to conduct proxy warfare against Israel. Symbolism is important in the Middle East. In April 2001, when Nasrallah met Khamenei, Nasrallah kissed Khamenei's hand, symbolizing fealty.[10] In the decade before Israel's 2000 withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah conducted more than three dozen suicide attacks against Israeli forces in Lebanon.[11] Between Israel's withdrawal and the eruption of war between Israel and Lebanon, Hezbollah conducted twenty-one additional operations against Israel itself.[12]

The Syrian government not only turned a blind eye toward the group's activities in Lebanon as Hezbollah systematically worked to undercut that state's sovereignty, but also facilitated a supply of Iranian missiles to Hezbollah. As Patrick Devenny, Henry M. Jackson National Security Fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., noted in a prescient article six months before the 2006 war, "The Hezbollah missile threat to Israel has expanded not only in quantity but also in quality. In recent years, the group's operational artillery reach has grown. Experts and analysts generally put the Hezbollah rocket force somewhere between 10,000 and 12,000 missiles. The heart of this arsenal remains rooted in Hezbollah's massive stocks--perhaps 7,000 to 8,000--of 107mm and 122mm Katyusha rockets, virtually all of which were supplied directly from existing Iranian army stocks."[13]

The Israel Defense Forces' failure to eradicate Hezbollah in the 2006 war led many analysts to declare Hezbollah the victor.[14] Hezbollah had survived Israel's onslaught and become the first Arab entity to hit Haifa since Israel's founding in 1948.[15] Robert G. Rabil, director of graduate studies at Florida Atlantic University and a well-regarded Syria and Lebanon analyst, went further, suggesting that Hezbollah's rise may have come at Syria's expense.[16]

Michael Rubin

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors../..

The Enduring Iran-Syria-Hezbollah Axis. Part II

by Michael Rubin

2nd part of 2

Is Syria Still Important?

Syria enabled Hezbollah's rise. It became the transit point for Iranian arms. In addition, Syria provided crucial safe haven for offices, personnel, and organization, not only for Hezbollah, but also for Palestinian terror groups and, since 2003, Islamist terrorists operating in Iraq. Through it all, Iranian support has been key.

In a 1996 speech to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, then-secretary of state Warren Christopher noted that Iran provides significant financial assistance to many terrorist groups that maintain offices in Lebanon. "Iran has not stopped at rhetoric. It meets frequently with all the major terrorist groups--including Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the PFLP-GC [Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command]. . . . It provides them with money--up to several million dollars a year in the case of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and others, and up to $100 million a year for Hezbollah alone. Iran also supplies them with arms and material support, training, and--in some cases--operational guidance."[17] More recently, Western diplomats in Lebanon estimate that Iranian assistance to Hezbollah is closer to $200 million annually.[18]

The arms trade continues through Syria. As the German military prepared to enforce the prohibition on Hezbollah resupply under terms of its UNIFIL mandate, the German news magazine Focus reported on October 9, 2006, that Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst, BND) had concluded that the Islamic Republic had already resupplied missiles to Hezbollah in the aftermath of the war. The BND reported that the resupply had occurred over land through Syria.[19] In 2008, Akhtari estimated that the volume of total trade ranged from $2.5 to $3 billion.[20] While illegal arms are but a tiny fraction of that figure, such trade traditionally provides cover for arms transfers. On May 29, 2007, for example, a Turkish train carrying construction supplies from Iran to Syria hit a mine allegedly laid by a Kurdish terrorist group and derailed. Police discovered an undeclared cache of Iranian arms, including rocket launchers and rifles.[21] The Turkish route into Syria may become more important as Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoˇgan tightens relations with both Tehran and Damascus. Regardless, Iranian cargo planes land frequently at Damascus International Airport.[22] Suspicion over their role in the illicit weapons trade led the European Union to sanction Iran Air Cargo.[23]

Hezbollah is not the only recipient of Iranian largesse on Syrian territory. Matthew Levitt, a former Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) terror and financial analyst, noted in congressional testimony that estimates of Iranian assistance to Hamas ranged between $20 million and $50 million each year through the 1990s.[24] Much of this money was and still is channeled through Hezbollah.[25] Upon Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's death in 2004, for example, Iranian intelligence reportedly channeled $22 million through Hezbollah to fund Palestinian terrorist groups more sympathetic to the Iranian line.[26]

The assassination of Hezbollah terrorist Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus highlights the crucial role Syria plays in international terrorism, regardless of its diplomatic posturing. On February 12, 2008, a car bomb in Damascus killed Mughniyeh, a fixture on the FBI's most-wanted list until his death. In the wake of Mughniyeh's death, Akhtari's comments highlighted the importance of Syria in the terror nexus. "We trust Syria," the Iranian ambassador explained. "It is their concern more than ours because Mughniyeh was their guest in Damascus and, of course, because of the close relations between Hezbollah and Syria."[27] Indeed, Hezbollah agents may do Syria and Iran's dirty work, not only against Israel and Western forces in Iraq, but also against Lebanon itself. A lengthy UN investigation of the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri appears ready to finger Hezbollah as the trigger party.[28]

Syria Remains Pivotal

Desire to make progress on the Middle East peace process, unravel the Syria-Iran axis, and end Syrian support for terrorism motivates the Obama administration's efforts to flip Syria diplomatically from its role as a rejectionist state into the more moderate camp populated by countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Jordan, which may not always be pro-American in the expression of their foreign policy, but at least keep their support for terrorism indirect and do not countenance Iranian influence.[29]

There is no evidence, however, that the State Department's engagement policy has worked. Syrian concessions--allowing the American Cultural Center to reopen, for example--have been halfhearted and more than offset by revelations of continued Syrian proliferation efforts and its facilitation of terror.[30] Nor does it appear that Tehran and Damascus have loosened their relations. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has met Syrian president Bashar Assad repeatedly, most recently last month in Turkey.[31]

Welcoming Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Muallim to Tehran on November 5, 2009, Ahmadinejad said, "Comprehensive Tehran-Damascus relations keep getting deeper, wiser, and stronger with the passage of each new day, and such relations are not easily subjected to other developments."[32]

Meanwhile, successful U.S. and Israeli interdiction efforts of Iranian arms at high sea, while embarrassing to Iran, have made Syria's role as a route for weapons delivery more important. The last decade has witnessed several high-profile interceptions of weapons:

ON JANUARY 29, 2001, THE ISRAELI NAVY SEIZED TWO CONTAINERS OF WEAPONS, REPORTEDLY OFFLOADED IN WATERTIGHT CONTAINERS BY THE CALYPSO, A LEBANESE ARMS-SMUGGLING SHIP.

ON MAY 7, 2001, THE ISRAELI NAVY SEIZED THE SANTORINI WHILE IT WAS ON ITS FOURTH ARMS-SMUGGLING MISSION. THIS SHIP CARRIED 107MM ROCKETS, MORTARS, ROCKET-PROPELLED GRENADES, ANTIAIRCRAFT MISSILES, AND ANTITANK WEAPONRY.

ON JANUARY 3, 2002, THE ISRAELI NAVY INTERCEPTED THE KARINE-A, A GAZA-BOUND FREIGHTER, WHILE IT WAS ON THE RED SEA. ONBOARD, NAVAL COMMANDOS FOUND FIFTY TONS OF SOPHISTICATED IRANIAN WEAPONRY.[33]

ON MAY 20, 2003, THE ISRAELI NAVY INTERCEPTED THE ABU HASSAN, A FISHING VESSEL CARRYING WEAPONS, EXPLOSIVES, AND DETONATORS.[34]

ON JANUARY 19-20, 2009, THE U.S. NAVY INTERCEPTED THE MONCHEGORSK, AN IRANIAN FREIGHTER CARRYING MILITARY SUPPLIES TO SYRIA IN VIOLATION OF UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 1559.[35]

ON NOVEMBER 4, 2009, THE ISRAELI NAVY INTERCEPTED THE FRANCOP, AN ANTIGUA-FLAGGED VESSEL THAT WAS ALLEGEDLY CARRYING THREE HUNDRED TONS OF IRANIAN WEAPONRY TO HEZBOLLAH.[36]

The importance of Syria grows as authorities in Tehran make clear their commitment to support Hezbollah and Palestinian groups, which the United States considers terrorists. When Ahmadinejad visited Damascus last spring, he met with the leaders of Damascus-based terrorist groups and promised them continued support.[37] Less than three weeks later, Ali Larijani, the speaker of the parliament whom some American journalists dub a pragmatist,[38] declared, "We are proud to defend Hamas and Hezbollah. We are not trying to hide it. They are fighters in the path of God, and you can call them whatever you like," adding that the idea that Tehran would ever abandon the two groups was a "U.S. dream."[39]

The Danger of Syria's Safe Haven

Syria's continued support for terrorists and other foreign fighters undermines any diplomatic gains the United States achieves. Because of Syria, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 has failed to prevent Hezbollah's rearmament. Meanwhile, the IRGC has more political power now than at any previous point in its history.[40] As such, statements by its commander that "in the near future, we will witness the destruction of Israel, the aggressor, this cancerous microbe Israel, at the able hands of the soldiers of the community of Hezbollah," should raise concerns in Washington and European capitals about the possibility of a regional conflagration.[41]

Recent reports that Iran transshipped gas masks and chemical weapons through Syria to Hezbollah should only heighten concern as the Islamic Republic increases its defiance in international discussions about its nuclear activities.[42] Across the U.S. political spectrum, analysts agree that, should Israel, the United States, or any other power strike at Iran's nuclear facilities, the Islamic Republic would respond, at least in part, by activating its proxy terrorist networks. Palestinian groups in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and foreign fighters in Iraq all have Syrian support in common.[43] Not only Hezbollah's rhetoric but also its track record suggest a willingness to attack Western targets, should war against Iran erupt.

Given both the circumstances and the stakes, it is ironic that U.S. officials continue to accept the fiction of Syrian sincerity. As difficult as stopping terrorist supplies may be, the likelihood that proxy groups will voluntarily forfeit their capability is low, and the cost of allowing terrorists to use such arms is high.

Michael Rubin

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Notes

1.Middle East Media Research Institute, "Iranian Parliament Speaker: The Blood of Khomeini Rages in Nasrallah's Veins; The Confrontation Is Not Only in Lebanon, but Deep Inside Occupied Palestine and within the Range of the Lion Clubs of Hizbullah . . . No Place in Israel Will Be Safe," Special Dispatch 1210, July 21, 2006, available at www.memri.org/ report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/1749.htm (accessed December 14, 2009).

2."Enemies Working to Eliminate the Guardianship of the Supreme Jurisconsult," Partow-e Sokhan, in Persian, December 13, 2006, in Open Source Center IAP20061220011007.

3.Yoav Stern, "Report: Hezbollah's New Missiles Have Range 'Israel Can't Fathom,'" Haaretz (Tel Aviv), August 29, 2008.

4.Quoted in Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah," Ash-Sharq al-Awsat (London), May 18, 2008.

5.U.S. Department of State, "State Sponsors of Terrorism," Country Reports on Terrorism 2008 (Washington, DC, 2009), available at www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2008/122436.htm (accessed December 11, 2009); and Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

6.Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

7.Ibid.

8.Patrick Seale, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East (London: I. B. Tauris, 1990), 169-79.

9.Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

10.Mehdi Khalaji, "Iran's Shadow Government in Lebanon" (PolicyWatch 1124, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, July 19, 2006), available at www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2489 (accessed December 11, 2009).

11.Robert Pape, Dying to Win (New York: Random House, 2005), 265-81.

12.Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "Hizbullah Attacks along Israel's Northern Border May 2000-June 2006," June 1, 2006, available at www.mfa.gov.il/NR/exeres/9EE216D7-82EF-4274-B80D-6BBD1803E8A7 (accessed December 11, 2009).

13.Patrick Devenny, "Hezbollah's Strategic Threat to Israel," Middle East Quarterly (Winter 2006).

14.Efraim Inbar, "How Israel Bungled the Second Lebanon War," Middle East Quarterly (Summer 2007).

15.Nadia Abou El-Magd, "For the Majority of Arabs, Hezbollah Won, Israel Is No Longer the Undefeatable Army," Associated Press, August 18, 2006.

16.Robert G. Rabil, "Has Hezbollah's Rise Come at Syria's Expense?" Middle East Quarterly (Fall 2007).

17.Warren Christopher, "Fighting Terrorism: Challenges for the Peacemakers" (Soref Symposium, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1996), available at www.washingtoninstitute.org/ templateC07.php?CID=69 (accessed December 11, 2009).

18.Scott Wilson, "Lebanese Wary of a Rising Hezbollah," Washington Post, December 20, 2004.

19.Josef Hufelschulte, "Neue feuerkraft für Hisbollah" [New Fire Power for Hezbollah], Focus (Munich), October 9, 2006.

20.Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

21."Konteynırda silahları" [Weapons Container], Hürriyet (Istanbul), May 30, 2007.

22.Matthew Levitt, "The New Lebanon: Democratic Reform and State Sponsorship" (PolicyWatch 1016, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, July 21, 2005), available at www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2346 (accessed December 11, 2009).

23.European Union, "Acts Adopted under Title V of the EU Treaty," Official Journal of the European Union L 61/49 (February 28, 2007), available at http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2007:061:0049:0055:EN:PDF (accessed December 11, 2009).

24.House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation, Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror: Threatening U.S. Security, Global Stability, and Regional Peace, 109th Cong., 1st sess., February 16, 2005.

25.Ibid.

26."Iran Expands Its Palestinian Control; Offers al-Khadoumi Five Million Dollars," Al-Watan (Kuwait), December 13, 2004, quoted in House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation, Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror: Threatening U.S. Security, Global Stability, and Regional Peace.

27.Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

28.Erich Follath, "Breakthrough in Tribunal Investigation: New Evidence Points to Hezbollah in Hariri Murder," Der Spiegel Online, May 23, 2009, available at www.spiegel.de/international/ world/0,1518,626412,00.html (accessed December 14, 2009).

29.Seymour M. Hersh, "Syria, Israel, and the Obama Administration," The New Yorker, April 6, 2009.

30."IAEA Inspects Nuclear Research Reactor in Syria," Agence France Presse, November 17, 2009.

31. "Ahmadinejad ba ra'is jomhuri-ye Suriya didar kard" [Ahmadinejad Meets with the President of the Republic of Syria], Asr-e Iran (Tehran), November 9, 2009.

32."Ahmadinejad: Regional Conditions in Iran's, Syria's Favor," Fars News Agency (Tehran), November 5, 2009.

33.Akiva J. Lorenz, "The Threat of Maritime Terrorism to Israel," International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, September 24, 2007, available at www.ict.org.il/Articles/tabid/66/Articlsid/ 251/ currentpage/6/Default.aspx (accessed December 11, 2009).

34.Shaul Shay, The Axis of Evil: Iran, Hizballah, and thePalestinian Terror (Edison, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 2005), 156.

35. "Cyprus Unloads 'Gaza Arms' Ship," BBC News, February 13, 2009.

36."Israel Navy Chief: Hezbollah-Bound Iran Ship Carried Hundreds of Tons of Arms," Haaretz.com (Tel Aviv), November 4, 2009, available at www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/ 1125807.html (accessed December 14, 2009).

37."Iran and Syria Continue to Support Resistance," Gulf News (Abu Dhabi), May 6, 2009.

38.See, for example, Barbara Slavin, "How Bush Saved Iran's Neocons," Foreign Policy (November 2007).

39."Tehran Proud to Support Hamas, Hezbollah," PressTV.ir, May 25, 2009, available at www.presstv.ir/ detail.aspx?id=95985 (accessed December 7, 2009).

40.Danielle Pletka and Ali Alfoneh, "Iran's Hidden Revolution," New York Times, June 17, 2009, available at www.aei.org/ article/100635.

41."Israel to Be Destroyed by Hezbollah," Fars News Agency (Tehran), February 19, 2008.

42."Hezbollah Silent over Report that Group Got Chemical Weapons," Daily Star (Beirut), September 4, 2009.

43.Brian Fishman, ed., Bombers, Bank Accounts & Bleedout: Al-Qa'ida's Road In and Out of Iraq (West Point, NY: Harmony Project, 2008).