Israel is back Our enemies scared of ‘crazy’ Israel, which finally learned rules of region

Guy Bechor

Published:

02.19.10, 09:17 / Israel Opinion

We are currently facing an odd situation the likes of which we have not seen for many years: Israel’s enemies are in panic, or is it paranoia, for fear that Israel will be attacking them. Hezbollah is convinced that it will suffer a blow at any moment, Hamas is still licking its wounds, Syria is concerned, and Iran’s foreign minister already declared that Israel is a “nation of crazy people” with “mad leaders” who may launch a strike. Meanwhile, the frightened Lebanese turned to the UN, to UNIFIL, and to French President Sarkozy and asked for France’s protection against the “terrible” Israel. However, the French announced that as long as Hezbollah is armed, they will only ask Israel to refrain from destroying Lebanon’s civilian infrastructures and no more than that. All this was published by the Arab media. On the other hand, our borders are quieter than they have been in many years. So how do we explain this bizarre Middle Eastern paranoia? The IDF is training today as it has not done in dozens of years. Every day, from morning till night: Tanks, airplanes, helicopters, live-fire drills and soldiers running around. The Lebanese watch this from across the border, as do the Syrians, and they are becoming anxious: What are the Israelis plotting over there? Is there something we don’t know? The Israeli restlessness prompts anxiety among our enemies, and this is good, of course. It’s called deterrence. Both Hezbollah and Syria know that the IDF made a leap since the last Lebanon War and it is now the first military in the world equipping its tanks with anti-missile systems, which are changing the rules of war. The IDF is also equipping itself with new APCs, advanced airplanes, and amazing technological systems, while Hezbollah and Syria are still stuck in the ‘80s and ‘90s. Moreover, a series of daring assassinations attributed to Israel is prompting personal fears among axis of evil leaders. They suspect everyone around them and the confusion is great. We should recall that Hezbollah leader Nasrallah has been hiding for three and a half years now, and this is quite embarrassing for someone who rushed to declare a “divine victory,” no less. Israel here to stay According to terror groups, Israel can reach anywhere and has infiltrated every organization and each Arab state. The glory of Israel’s secret services had been restored and the fear of them has increased. So what are people in the region telling themselves? “Israel is back.” It disappeared for about a decade and a half of “peace,” where it was perceived as weak; yet now it is back at full force. Both the Lebanon War and the Gaza War are having an effect. If in the past Lebanon prompted the Palestinians to launch an Intifada or be daring in Gaza, based on Nasrallah’s “spider web” theory,” today the opposite is true. Hezbollah sees the destruction sowed by Israel in Gaza and it loses the urge to fight us. They look at Gaza and think about themselves. The Goldstone Report, which claimed that Israel goes crazy when it is being attacked, caused us some damage (which should not be exaggerated) in the world, yet it was a blessing in our region. If Israel goes crazy and destroys everything in its way when it’s being attacked, one should be careful. No need to mess with crazy people. Yet what concerns our enemies more than anything else? The insight that Israel, for the first time in its history, has learned the rules of the region. Our enemies realize that the days where Israel conducted itself as a state without honor willing to give in to the advances of those who deceive it are over. They realize that Israel has matured, learned the art of creating deterrence, and that it is here to stay. Our enemies understand that Israel will no longer give in to their advances in exchange for illusions or words. They realize that it won’t be easy for them to control it from the outside or to deploy their supporters within it, because they lost the faith of the public. They are starting to understand that Israel is stronger than they thought or fantasized of, and this insight affects their own self-image – and to their great regret, this hurts. Ynet.com .

Israel Threatens Assad with Regime Change.

Middle East and Terrorism
By: Michael J. Totten

The Israeli government may be moving beyond its fear and loathing of a Syria governed by somebody other than Bashar Assad. For years, Jerusalem has been careful to avoid doing anything or even saying anything that might destabilize Damascus. But after Syria's foreign minister, Walid Moallem, threatened Israel this week with a war that would be fought "inside your cities," Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman snapped. "Not only will you lose the war," he said to Assad, "you and your family will no longer be in power."

There are good reasons to feel squeamish about the aftermath of regime change, whether it comes at the hands of Israelis or not. The same sectarian monster that stalks Lebanon and Iraq lives just under the floorboards in Syria. The majority of Syria's people are Sunni Arabs, but 30 percent or so are Christians, Druze, Alawites, or Kurds. Assad himself is an Alawite, as are most of the elite in the ruling Baath Party, the secret police, and the military. Their very survival depends on keeping Syria's sectarianism suppressed. The country could easily come apart without Assad's government enforcing domestic peace at the point of a gun. This is a serious problem. It's not Israel's problem, but it's a problem.

The Israelis have been worried about something else: that after Assad, Syria might be governed by the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood organization or something that looks a lot like it. There's no guarantee, though, that the Muslim Brothers would take over. They aren't in power anywhere else in the Arab world. Even if they do succeed Assad, they couldn't ramp up the hostility much. Assad's is already the most hostile Arab government in the world. A replacement regime, especially one dominated by Sunnis rather than by minorities who lack legitimacy and feel they have something to prove, would likely gravitate toward the regional mainstream.

Millions of Syrians sympathize with the Muslim Brotherhood. They're tired of being lorded over by secularists from a faith they consider heretical. Still, fundamentalist Sunni Arabs who try to impose some kind of theocracy will meet automatic resistance from the country's Christians, Alawites, Druze, Kurds, and secular and moderate Sunnis. Theocracy is hardly the norm in the Middle East anyway. Not a single Arab country — unless you consider Gaza a country — is governed by a religious regime like the one in Iran.

No dictatorship rules forever. The Alawite regime in Damascus will eventually be replaced, one way or another. Syria will have to reckon with its own demons sooner or later, and it will either hold together and muddle through, or it won't. Just as every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way, unstable countries fall apart in their own way. Only a fool would dismiss as irrelevant the sectarian bloodletting Iraq has suffered during the last several years, but Syria's problems are its own, and a few critical ingredients that made Iraq into a perfect storm are missing.

Assad's own foreign policy was — and, to an extent, still is — a big part of Iraq's problem. He made Syria a transit hub for radical Sunnis from all over the Arab world who volunteered to martyr themselves fighting American soldiers, Shia civilians, and the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad. That won't be a problem once Assad is out of the picture.

Freelance jihadists won't be interested in fighting the next Syrian government anyway if the Alawites are stripped of their power. Sunnis will dominate the government again, as they should because they're the majority. Sunni Arabs all over the Middle East are still unhappy that Iraq is mostly governed by Shias, but they'll be at peace with a Sunni-led Syria.

I'd love to see Assad get his just desserts after what he's done to his neighbors and his countrymen. It will be terrific if his Arab Socialist Baath Party regime is replaced with something more moderate and civilized. The odds of a smooth transition and a happy ending, though, are not great. Syria has no grassroots movement demanding democratic change right now as Iran does. The Israelis are right to be cautious.

But they're also right to threaten to pull Assad's plug if he doesn't back off. He's a lot less likely even to start the next war if he knows he'll be held accountable. The fact that he can suppress sectarian violence at home isn't worth much if he won't stop exporting it everywhere else.

Michael J. Totten

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Lebanon urges France: Help prevent Israel from attacking us

Haaretz.com
By Jack Khoury, Haaretz Correspondent

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday asked France to wield its power in the international arena and take a stance against any possibility of an Israeli attack on Lebanon.

During talks with the president of France's senate, Gerard Gérard Larcher, Berri said the world must force Israel to abide wholly by United Nations Resolution 1701 - which put an end to the 2006 war with Hezbollah - in order to ensure the security of the entire Middle East.

Syria last month vowed to stand by Lebanon's side in the case of an Israeli attack, but Israel has declared that it has no intention go to war with its norther nneighbor"The State of Israel is not looking for any kind of confrontation with Lebanon," Netanyahu said in a statement released by his office in January, adding, "Israel seeks peace with all of its neighbors."

Also last month, Hezbollah on Saturday lashed out at French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner over his recent comments condemning the group and linking it to Iran.

"Israel is our friend, and if there was a threat to Lebanon, it will only come from a military adventure carried out by Hezbollah in the best interest of Iran," Kouchner reportedly told the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri during a visit to Paris.

In response, Hezbollah declared: "Kouchner's statement carried clear echoes for the Israeli voice and a full denial for France's history and its legacy in resisting aggression and occupation."

"This stance is an attempt to acquit Israel and to cover up its relentless violations of Lebanese sovereignty, the thing which represents a shield for its occupation and an encouragement for it to pursue its aggressions," Hezbollah said.
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Assad: Syria will stand by Lebanon

Photo by: AP

BY HERB KEINON
08/02/2010 01:32

Syrian president, Lebanese official discuss "repeated Israeli threats."Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Syrian President Bashar Assad went in different directions with their statements on Sunday, with Netanyahu making conciliatory comments, and Assad responding by talking again about war.

Assad, according to the Syrian SANA news agency, held talks with the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri, in Damascus and stressed “Syria’s commitment to stand by Lebanon’s government and people against any Israeli aggression.”

According to SANA, “Talks during the meeting dealt with the Israeli repeated threats against countries of the region and Israeli extremism, which is poised for burying any chance for reaching peace by inflaming wars in the region and taking it into the unknown.”

By stressing that Damascus would stand by Lebanon “against Israeli aggression,” Assad seemed to be echoing Syrian Foreign Minister Wallid Muallem’s warning last week that Syria would not stand to the side if the IDF took action against Hizbullah.

Israel, meanwhile, has been saying consistently for months that it would hold the Lebanese government responsible for any aggression from Hizbullah, since Hizbullah is a member of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government.

Assad’s comments followed equally bellicose comments made earlier in the day by Syrian Minister of Information Mohsen Bilal, who said Israel was harming peace in the region and the world, and that its leaders should be tried in an international court.

Speaking at Kuneitra, on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, Bilal lashed into Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who said on Thursday in response to Muallem’s threats that if Syria waged a war with Israel it would not only lose the war, but Assad would also lose his power.

Bilal called Lieberman’s words “barbaric and aggressive,” and said the foreign minister was ostracized by the entire world. “These are barbaric and aggressive declarations that show the bankruptcy of that government, and the bankruptcy and barbarism of that man [Lieberman],” he said.

Netanyahu, who since the war of words with Syria began last week has been issuing statements trying to calm the situation, did the same on Sunday, saying at the opening of the weekly cabinet meeting that Israel hoped to complete peace agreements with all its neighbors, including the Palestinians and Syrians, just as it reached an agreement with Egypt and Jordan.

But, he said, Israel would be guided in those efforts by two principles. “First, we will conduct negotiations without preconditions. We do not accept the idea that Israel must always make extraordinary concessions in advance while the other side is exempt from making its own concessions. It is negotiations that will bring about an agreement and we will not enter into negotiations when everything is known in advance.”

Second, he added, “at the end of the negotiations we need to maintain Israel’s vital national interests, especially security. It is doubtful whether any peace agreement that is unaccompanied by solid security arrangements on the ground can last. We want peace that will last for years, decades and generations and to this end, these components, especially security, are essential.”

Although Netanyahu asked his ministers last week not to comment on the Syrian issue so as not to exacerbate a sensitive situation, National Infrastructures Minister Uzi Landau (Israel Beiteinu) told reporters before the cabinet meeting that while he wanted peace with Syria, it would have to be a peace with the Golan Heights in Israel’s hands.

“The Golan will not be given to Syria,” Landau said. “The Golan is in our hands, the Golan is part of Israel, the Golan is vital for Israel’s security, and those who want peace cannot give up the Golan. We want peace, but those who attack us will pay a very heavy price.”Welfare and Social Services Minister Isaac Herzog (Labor), meanwhile, called on members of the government to speak in more moderate tones.

“Israel has always known how to navigate in the world of diplomacy with responsibly, moderation and reasonableness, standing firm by its principles and positions,” said Herzog, whose father, Chaim, was an ambassador to the UN, and later the president of the state.

“I come from a family that understands a little bit about diplomacy, and I say that the diplomacy is measured first by restraint, cultured behavior and standing by our principles,” Herzog said.

Foreign Minister Lieberman Warns Syria Against War

by Avi Yellin

(IsraelNN.com) Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu) warned Damascus on Thursday against drawing the State of Israel into another war, promising that such a conflict would result in the deaths of many Syrian soldiers and the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime.

Lieberman further warned Syria to abandon its attempts to reclaim the Golan Heights, liberated by Israel during the 1967 Six Day War. “We must make Syria recognize that just as it relinquished its dream of a greater Syria that controls Lebanon... it will have to relinquish its ultimate demand regarding the Golan Heights.

The foreign minister’s bold statements followed Syrian President Bashar Assad’s accusation on Wednesday that Israel was avoiding peace. Assad’s foreign minister threatened Israel earlier in the week, saying that Israeli cities would be attacked in a future conflict between the countries.

Speaking at Tel Aviv University, Lieberman asserted that the Syrians “have crossed a red line that cannot be ignored… Our message must be clear to Assad: ‘In the next war, not only will you lose but you and your family will lose power.’”

Indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel ended without a breakthrough in 2008. Damascus has expressed interest in having Turkey resume its mediation role, repeating that in his meeting with Spain's foreign minister this week, but Israel and Turkey have clashed diplomatically over the last year and Israeli officials no longer consider Turkey to be an honest broker.

Netanyahu repeated his statement earlier in the week (see article on page) that Israel wants peace talks with Syria and is not interested in war. He and Leiberman issued a statement calling for talks without preconditions.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Labor) had warned earlier in the week that absence of peace with Syria could result in a regional war. Arab affairs expert Eyal Zisser countered Barak's statements on Thursday, calling them the reason for the sudden tenstion between Israel and Syria and arguing that it is likely to fade. In an interview with Israel National News TV (see video story on page), Zisser explained that neither country wants a war at this time. He noted that for the past 36 years, the border with Syria has been very peaceful as a result of Israeli military deterrence and not because of any peace agreement. Yesterday, Barak called for negotiations, not threats.

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'U.S. urges Israel, Syria to curb renewed tensions'

By Jack Khoury, Haaretz Correspondent and Haaretz Service

Washington has called on Israel and Syria to curb recent tensions that might make it more difficult to resume stalled peace negotiations, the London-based A-Sharq Al-Awsat reported on Friday.

State Department sources told the Arabic-language daily that the U.S. was determined to see Israel re-enter the peace process, both on the Palestinian and Syrian track.

The sources said that the new U.S. envoy to Syria was dealing with a number of issues challenging the resumption of talks, and that Washington was making efforts to see the obstacles overcome.A top aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel wants to start talks that would culminate with a permanent peace agreement with Syria, but would continue to react against any threats to its safety.

Nir Hefetz, head of the National Information Directorate in the prime minister's bureau, said after a meeting with Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman that the two wished to emphasize their commitment to peace with Israel's neighbor to the north.

Hefetz said that Lieberman and Netanyahu wished to clarify that the "government's policy is clear, that Israel desires peace and to engage in unconditional talks with Syria."

"At the same time," Hefetz added, "Israel would continue to assertively and decisively react against any threat made against it."

Defense Minister Ehud Barak, meanwhile, relayed a message to Syria on Thursday in an attempt to calm tensions between the two countries.

Barak told senior Israel Defense Forces officers earlier this week: "Just like the familiar reality in the Middle East, we will immediately sit down [with Syria] after such a war and negotiate on the exact same issues we have been discussing with them for the past 15 years."

According to a Defense Ministry source, Barak's statements during the last week were meant for Israeli ears alone in order to emphasize the importance of peace talks, and in no way did he insinuate that Israel intended to attack Syria.

The source said that Israel was operating on several levels to make sure that misunderstandings between the two countries do not deteriorate into diplomatic tension.

Addressing a business conference at Bar-Ilan University earlier this week, Lieberman warned Syrian President Bashar Assad that if his country entered a conflict with Israel, it would not only lose, but his regime would also disintegrate.

"Assad should know that if he attacks, he will not only lose the war. Neither he nor his family will remain in power," Lieberman told the audience.

The foreign minister's remarks come after Assad on Wednesday told Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos that Israel was pushing the Middle East toward a new war.

"Our message should be that if Assad's father lost a war but remained in power, the son should know that an attack would cost him his regime," Lieberman continued. "This is the message that must be conveyed to the Syrian leader by Israel."

EXCLUSIVE: US intelligence finds 5,000 Hizballah trained to seize Galilee towns

EXCLUSIVE:
DEBKAfile

This is real scary DEBKAfile

Jones was not talking out of the top of his head, but on the strength of solid US intelligence gathered over months on detailed war plans Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas have drawn up to send five Hizballah brigades sweeping across the border to seize five sectors of Galilee, while also organizing a massive Israeli-Arab uprising against the Jewish state.

Hamas would open a second front in the south and in the east. Syria is expected to step in at some stage.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards instructors at especially established training facilities near Tehran are already well advanced in training a cadre of 5,000 Hizballah fighters in special operations and urban combat tactics to standards equivalent to those current in similar US and Israeli military forces.

At the outset of the course, the group was split up into five battalions, each given a specific northern Israeli sector for capture with details of its topography and population for close study.
(See attached map).

1st Battalion:
This unit will break through the Naqura-Rosh Haniqra border pass and sweep south along seven kilometers to seize Nahariya, the Israeli Mediterranean city of 55,000 - or parts thereof.

UN peacekeepers have their headquarters at Naqura, the other side of Rosh Haniqra, and Israel defenses there are lax, so no military or geographic obstacles to this Hizballah drive are anticipated. This battalion will capture a large number of Israeli hostages for use as live shields against an Israeli counter-attack

A small group of 150 fighters, trained by Revolutionary Guards marines, will also try and reach the coast by swift boats. They are already standing by in Lebanon.

2nd Battalion:

This unit is assigned to capture the northern Israeli town of Shlomi, 300 meters southeast of the Naqura border pass and home to 6,500 inhabitants. Holding this town and its environs will give Hizballah control of a key road hub and stand in the path of Israeli reinforcements heading for Nahariya through routes 89 and 899 from key Israeli bases in the Galilee and Upper Galilee regions to the east.

3rd Battalion:

Driving further south than any other Hizballah unit, this battalion must reach the three Israeli-Arab villages of B’ina, Deir al-Asad and Majd el-Krum, which are located north of the town of Carmiel and alongside Israel’s Route 85 which connects Acre on the Mediterranean with Safad in the central Galilee mountains.

Iranian war planners want Hizballah to control the three Israeli-Arab locations for two advantages:

One: As a commanding position for stirring up the disaffected Israeli-Arab villages and towns of Lower Galilee and Wadi Ara to the south into a full-blown uprising. The incoming combat force will be backed up by clandestine Hizballah cells which for some years have established, armed and funded the underground “Galilee Liberation Battalions” in Sakhnin, Araba and Deir Hana, by means of drug smugglers.

Hizballah’s West Bank cells have been active for some time in the Wadi Ara region, through which National Route 65 connects central Israel to the North.

Two: To gain fire control of Acre-Safed Route 85 from positions in occupied Arab villages and so have a shield ready for the Hizballah units holding Nahariya and Shlomi, and seriously impede the passage of Israeli forces from bases in the center of the country to relieve these northern towns. The Israeli Air Force will be constrained from attacking the areas held by Hizballah by the presence of large civilian populations.

4th Battalion:
This battalion will push southeast into the Kadesh Valley, on the rim of which the Makia and Yiftah kibbutzim and Makia moshav are clustered. Capture of these locations would afford Hizballah fire coverage of Israel’s northernmost Galilee Panhandle.

5th Battalion: Hizballah’s Strategic Reserve.

Rocket attacks from Lebanon will focus on disabling Israel’s strategic military sites, such as air force bases, missile bases, its nuclear facilities and naval bases. Targeting Israeli population centers is a lower Iranian priority.

Syria’s initial involvement will be limited to cover by artillery or air for Hizballah operations. But if the fighting escalates or drags on, Hizballah will invite Syrian back-up forces to go into Lebanon; Damascus will open Front No. 4 against Israel from the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.

The Tehran-Hizballah war strategy is all but ready for any contingency. The obvious trigger would be an Israeli military operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities, but once all the elements are in place, they could be activated by any other pretext conjured up in Tehran or Damascus.

In recent weeks, both Hizballah and its Syrian allies have mobilized their forces while telling the Arab world that the Jewish state is about to attack Lebanon.

Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah is straining at the leash to attack Israel however the crisis over Iran’s nuclear program turns out.
Sunday, January 17, he said: “I promise you, in view of all the threats you hear today… that should a new war with the Zionists erupt, we [the Lebanese resistance movement] will crush the enemy, come out victorious, and change the face of the region.

“God willing, Israel, the occupation, hegemony, and arrogance are in the process of disappearing!”

Nasrallah was not alone in anticipating a troubled year for the Middle East.

Israel urged to widen any future Lebanon conflict to Syria

The Daily Star.com
Invading Bekaa Valley would strike ‘Real blow’ to Hizbullah
By Dalila Mahdawi
Daily Star staff
Saturday, January 30, 2010

BEIRUT: The Israeli state must take into account Syria’s role in supporting Hizbullah in any future war with the Lebanese group, an Israeli security analyst said on Friday. Renewed hostilities could also see Israel launch a ground invasion of the Bekaa to cut Syrian supply routes to the Shiite group, Jonathan Spyer, senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, wrote in the Jerusalem Post. Hizbullah officials contacted by The Daily Star declined to comment on the story.

“Any future strike at Hizbullah that does not take into account its status as a client of Syria is unlikely to land a decisive blow,” he said, citing a recent report in the British magazine Jane’s Defence Weekly which claimed that Syria had supplied the Shiite group with missiles capable of hitting central Israel.

“The logic of confrontation in Lebanon suggests that Syria may find it hard to avoid direct engagement in a future Israel-Hizbullah clash,” Spyer said. The “point of no return” would be if Damascus provided anti-aircraft devices to Hizbullah to use during Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace.

The analyst also said that “if Israel wants … to strike a real blow against Hizbullah, this implies an Israeli ground incursion into the Bekaa” and areas close to the Syrian border, which allegedly now host most of the group’s military infrastructure.

Tensions between Israel and Lebanon have mounted in recent months, with Beirut accusing Israel of running espionage rings across the country. Earlier this month Tel Aviv blamed Hizbullah for planting 300 kilograms of explosives near the Blue Line border.

Last week Israeli minister without portfolio Yossi Peled said he believed another conflict with Lebanon was “only a matter of time,” prompting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to deny his government was seeking a war. In a meeting Wednesday with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak was quoted by Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot as saying Israel had no “intentions to attack Syria or Lebanon.” Barak has in the past, however, said Israel would not only target Hizbullah but also Lebanon’s government and infrastructure in a future conflict.

During his own meeting with Mubarak on Thursday, Lebanese Prime Minister nevertheless said Beirut took all Israeli threats “seriously.”

“Any threat against Lebanese territory, whether in the south, Bekaa, [the Beirut suburbs of] Dahiyeh or any other region in Lebanon is a threat against all of Lebanon and the Lebanese government,” Hariri told reporters, calling for Arab solidarity to “counter these threats.”

Spyer said that the “ominous statements” by Israeli officials were not intended to announce the arrival of a war but rather to warn Syrian officials “that they should not think their alliance with Hizbullah is cost free.” A report published by Al-Liwaa newspaper last week claimed Lebanon could be dragged into a possible war with Israel as early as March.

The Israeli state launched a devastating 34-day war on Lebanon in July 2006 after Hizbullah members captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. – With additional reporting by Wassim Mroueh

Note: cartoon and photo added by BeeSting.

Hamas Official Murdered in Dubai Hotel Room

New York Times
By ROBERT F. WORTH and ISABEL KERSHNER
Published: January 29, 2010

SANA, Yemen — A senior Hamas official was murdered in a Dubai hotel room last week, the Palestinian militant group said on Friday. Hamas accused Israel of the killing and vowed to retaliate.

The official, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, 50, lived in Syria and was a founder of Hamas’s military wing, which has carried out hundreds of deadly attacks against Israel since the 1980s, Hamas officials said. He had survived several previous assassination attempts, relatives said, including one three months ago that left him in a coma for 24 hours.

The Dubai police issued a statement saying that Mr. Mabhouh was killed hours after arriving in the city on Jan. 19 by a “professional criminal gang” that left Dubai before the body was discovered. The killers had been tracking him since before his arrival in Dubai, and most of them traveled on European passports, the statement said.

There were conflicting reports about how Mr. Mabhouh was killed, with some relatives saying Hamas officials told them he was electrocuted and others saying he was poisoned or suffocated. Osama Hamdan, a Hamas spokesman in Lebanon, said “we will not talk about the details until we have put all the pieces of the puzzle together.”

Israeli officials declined to comment.

Assassinations are rare in Dubai, a polyglot business hub on the Persian Gulf where deposed foreign leaders sometimes sought shelter among the city’s skyscrapers and luxury hotels. But that began to change last year after a former Chechen rebel was shot dead in an underground Dubai parking lot.

“The myth that Dubai is the eye of the storm, and no one will touch it because everyone has an interest, is being blown apart,” said Christopher Davidson, the author of two books on the United Arab Emirates, to which Dubai belongs.

Mr. Mabhouh is said to have organized the capture of two Israeli soldiers during a Palestinian uprising in the 1980s. He was imprisoned several times by Israel.

Hamas has ruled Gaza since 2006, but its political leaders are also based in Damascus, Syria. There have been a number of attempts on the lives of Hamas members. Last month two Hamas officials were killed in a mysterious explosion in southern Beirut, near the headquarters of Hezbollah. In 1997, Khaled Meshaal, the leader of the group’s Damascus politburo, survived an Israeli assassination attempt in Amman, Jordan.

Mr. Mabhouh was buried on Friday in the Al Yarmouk Palestinian camp, near the Syrian capital, on Friday afternoon. Television images showed large crowds of Palestinians in attendance, as pallbearers carried his coffin, draped in a green Hamas flag.

Hamas officials visited the Mabhouh family home in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza and vowed to avenge his death.

Ismail Haniya, the leader of the Hamas government in Gaza, kissed Mr. Mabhouh’s father on the forehead and described his son as a hero. Another senior Hamas leader in Gaza, Khalil al-Hayya, told reporters at the Jabaliya home that Mr. Mabhouh was “not the first one the Mossad’s hand has reached.”

“We reserve our right to respond to this crime in a suitable time and place,” Mr. Hayya said. But, he added, “We in Hamas emphasize that our battlefield is the land of Palestine and our battle with the enemy is in Palestine,” and not on foreign soil.

Mohammed Abdel Raouf al-Mabhouh, the brother of Mahmoud, said in an interview that he had last seen his brother in May 1989. Mahmoud felt that he was in danger, according to his brother, because of his involvement in the abduction and killing of two Israeli soldiers in separate incidents that year.

Mahmoud escaped Gaza without telling his family where he was going. Mohammed said he had not been back in Gaza since, but that his wife and children had visited there in 2007.

On Jan. 20, according to Mohammed, Mahmoud’s wife called from Syria to say that Mahmoud had been found dead in his hotel room in Dubai, hours after his arrival there.

“We were sure there was something mysterious about his death,” Mohammed said, adding that his brother had been the target of several assassination attempts before.

Columnist in Syrian Government Daily: The Afghanistan Fire Will Roast U.S. Leaders

MIDDLE EAST MEDIA RESEARCH

In his column in the official Syrian daily Al-Thawra, Dr. Jihad Taher Bakfalouni mocks senior U.S. officials, claiming that they have realized their mistake in entering Afghanistan yet are unwilling to take responsibility for it. He added that the American public's criticism of the continued presence of U.S. forces in Afghanistan would only increase.

The following are excerpts from his column:[1]

The "Afghan Restaurant" Has Disappointed the U.S. Politicians

"After all these years, the American politicians are discovering that the Afghan restaurant, of whose tempting dishes they dreamed, has disappointed them, dashing their hopes publicly. Today, their only way to express the bitterness that seized them after their dreams were shattered is to curse the moment in which their feeble spirit aroused their greed and they responded to it, thinking that [the food] served at this restaurant is delicious and would spark their appetite.

"Their ongoing lament over their bad fortune in Afghanistan emanates first and foremost from the steep increase in the price of the dishes at this restaurant – an increase that will get worse as the Afghan winter sets in and the fierce cold and snow accumulate around their strangled and shriveled souls, and as the dishes [served] become lower and lower in fat, down to nearly zero percent – not to mention the [restaurant's] terrible management."

The U.S. Leaders' Criticism Is Directed at the Plans They Themselves Drew Up

"In light of the embarrassing situation of the U.S. forces that invaded Afghanistan, the only way in which the American politicians and senior military personnel can express their abysmal despair is with relentless criticism. Their harsh lashes of criticism are directed at the plans that were drawn up and circulated as a 'philosopher's stone' that would make the Afghan rebels obey the American master of the [Aladdin-style] lamp, more than his own fingers obey him. But the [American leaders] were surprised to find that the situation was completely different – instead of the rebel obeying and being loyal to the bearer or owner of the lamp, he aimed to put the owner of the lamp into the lamp, to torture him with the harshest of torments...

"The strange thing is that the criticism of [the U.S.] plan [for Afghanistan] – criticism that will later become curses and invective – came from those who made this plan it in the first place. In order for the reader not to be confused, he must know that this [criticism] is not self-criticism, but rather an attempt to evade responsibility and avoid an accounting in the future, after the American citizens' resentment escalates because of the [war's] heavy financial price and because their husbands and sons are falling in Afghanistan with no clear purpose."

"[America's] Exit from the Afghan Stewpot Will Not Be Like its Entrance"

Bakfalouni then cites as an example the criticism by the U.S.'s chief intelligence officer in Afghanistan, Major General Michael Flynn, on U.S. intelligence operations there, and concludes by saying:

"[America's] exit from the Afghan stewpot will not be like its entrance. The U.S. forces involved in breaking into the Afghan restaurant will be forced to pay a heavy price – one that they will be able neither to hide nor to [pay]. The food will emerge from the intestines of the American soldiers, sent by his leaders to destroy Afghanistan, as a fire whose flames will roast these leaders. American public opinion will further fan this fire, making it even more deadly.

"The only way left for American politicians and military personnel to mitigate the impact of this fire is to return to their country, accompanied by the curse of history and the contempt of an [entire] Afghan generation that saw them sowing corruption and destruction in its land – for which loathsome crime they will never forgive them."

Endnote:

[1] Al-Thawra (Syria), January 8, 2010.

Abbas not to see Hamas chief in Syria visit: official

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas speaks during a live speech on the 45th anniversary of his Fatah party's establishment in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Dec. 31, 2009. (Xinhua File Photo)

www.chinaview.cn 2010-01-09 18:47:03

RAMALLAH, Jan. 9 (Xinhua) -- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas plans to visit Syria but will not meet his exiled Hamas rival, an official from Abbas' Fatah party said Saturday.

Abbas will not meet Hamas' politburo chief Khaled Mashaal in his planned visit to Damascus, said Jamal Muhissen, a member of Fatah's Central Committee.

"If Hamas had signed the reconciliation deal, there would have been meetings between the two sides," Muhissen added, referring to an Egyptian proposal to reconcile Hamas and Fatah.

The Islamic Hamas movement, which took over Gaza by force in 2007, raised reservations on the Egyptian offer to restore political unity to Gaza and the Fatah-ruled West Bank.

Earlier, Palestinian sources said that Abbas will sit with Mashaal in a meeting sponsored by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.　

RELATED:

Fatah official rules out immediate reconciliation deal with Hamas

RAMALLAH, Jan. 3 (Xinhua) -- A senior official of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party on Sunday ruled out the possibility of striking a reconciliation agreement immediately with rival Islamic Hamas movement.

Meanwhile, a senior Hamas leader said that his movement ruling the Gaza Strip doesn't oppose the signing of the reconciliation pact drafted by Egypt. Full story

Abbas: reconciliation agreement with Hamas only to be signed in Egypt

RAMALLAH, Dec. 31 (Xinhua) -- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday declared that he has rejected an offer from rival Hamas to sign national reconciliation deal in other place than Egypt.

"Hamas has officially offered to sign the Egyptian document under the condition that the signing doesn't take pace in Egypt," Abbas said in a live speech on the 45th anniversary of his Fatah party's establishment. Full story

(Related articles can be found on same website)

U.S. security adviser to meet with officials on peace talks

By Aluf Benn, Barak Ravid, Avi Issacharoff and Jack Khoury

United States National Security Adviser James Jones is due in Israel on Tuesday for meetings on resuming the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

"We are getting closer to the resumption of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority," senior Israeli and U.S. officials told Haaretz over the weekend. Jones will be visiting Israel as a guest of his counterpart, Uzi Arad, and will also hold meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, Mossad chief Meir Dagan and opposition leader Tzipi Livni.

Among the subjects that will be discussed, in addition to the peace process, are the efforts to stop Iran's nuclear program and impose further sanctions against Tehran by the UN Security Council. Security cooperation between Israel and the United States, as well as the situation on the northern border with Syria and Lebanon, are other issues on the agenda.

Over the weekend, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and a team of senior U.S. officials held talks with visiting foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan, as well as Egypt's Intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman. The talks revolved mostly over the resumption of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Later in the week, Special Envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell will travel first to Paris for talks and then attend a meeting of the Quartet in Brussels. The following week, Mitchell is expected in Israel.

Senior U.S. officials told Haaretz over the weekend that they are more optimistic about the possibility of resuming peace talks in the near future, especially because of a change in the attitude of Arab states. According to the same officials, Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries are pressuring the Palestinians to agree to resume negotiations.

"We are still trying to formulate a way for resuming negotiations," they said. "There is a new approach on the part of the Arab states which is causing us to believe we are closer to renewing the process. Undoubtedly the atmosphere is changing and the Arabs tell us they want to begin the negotiations soon."

However the head of the PLO negotiating team, Saeb Erakat, said yesterday that the negotiations will not resume unless Israel completely ceases construction in settlements.

Erakat spoke in response to Clinton's call to resume talks without preconditions. The Palestinian official said the negotiations should resume from the point where they left off in December 2008.

So far, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has been steadfast in his refusal to succumb to American and Arab pressure to agree to restart negotiations with the government of Israel.

Palestinian media noted yesterday that in her statements Clinton had ignored the Palestinian demand for a full freeze in settlement construction. Palestinian criticism of the attitude of the Obama administration is therefore expected to intensify in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar Assad met yesterday with Hamas politburo chief Khaled Meshal in Damascus. According to the Syrian News Agency, Assad said he would like to see rivals Fatah and Hamas close ranks behind the Palestinian cause.

When Egypt clenches its iron fist

Last week Egypt refused to let an international aid convoy into Gaza from Aqaba through Nuweiba and forced it to return to Syria and from there proceed to El Arish.

Yesterday Egypt exercised considerable force to demonstrate its determination in deciding who enters Gaza, how and when, as it stood off against Palestinians rioting over the convoy's delay. Egypt's approach to the aid convoy is not unrelated to its construction of a steel fence along the border to block the smuggling from Egypt to Gaza.

Despite public criticism in Egypt and other Arab states, including burning President Hosni Mubarak's picture and accusing him of cooperating with Israel, Egypt remains adamant in its position.

Egypt's stance does not arise from its desire to help the Israeli siege on Gaza or to respond to the United States' demand to prevent smuggling. It is intended to show both Hamas and Syria that just as it has the power to open the border crossings at will and relieve the siege, so it can twist Hamas' arm.

Egypt has good reason to do so, after Hamas refused to sign the reconciliation agreement with Fatah that Egypt had suggested. Egypt is also making it clear to Syria that from now on Damascus and Iran no longer have exclusive control over Hamas' moves, and that Cairo has a powerful economic lever at its disposal.

Egypt is interested in Palestinian reconciliation and wishes to set up a Palestinian unity government. Egypt has assured Hamas and Mahmoud Abbas of its support if such a government is formed, mainly because it does not want to be responsible for the Gaza Strip.

But Cairo is fed up with Hamas' foot-dragging and Tehran's meddling. In this Egypt is assisted by Saudi Arabia, which gave Hamas politburo chief Khaled Meshal an ultimatum to decide whether he is running an Arab organization or is under the "patronage of a foreign power," i.e. Iran.

Meshal hastened to state that Hamas is an Arab-Muslim organization and is not subordinate to anyone else. But until Hamas signs the reconciliation agreement Egypt will continue building the fence and preventing people and goods from reaching Gaza, apart from humanitarian aid.

The reconciliation is one of the two conditions Egypt is demanding for opening the border crossings. The second pertains to the success of the Shalit deal.

Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossam Zaki said that if the Shait deal works out and if Hamas signs the reconciliation agreement, it could lead to lifting the blockade from Gaza completely and to opening the border.

Obama's Engagement Fallout: Lebanon Surrenders.

by Jonathan Tobin

This past weekend, one of the genuine triumphs of American foreign policy in the past decade was officially reversed. When Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Harriri went to Damascus to pay tribute to his country’s Syrian overlord, the 2005 Cedar Revolution was buried. Less than five years ago, American pressure, which encouraged those forces in Lebanon that longed to be free, helped bring about the withdrawal of the Syrian troops that had occupied that country since the 1970s. Syria had overreached when it sponsored the assassination of Harriri’s father, Rafik, who preceded him as prime minister. That, combined with the increased influence in the region of the United States in the wake of the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, had convinced the Syrians that they must retreat.

But although the Syrian army has not returned, it now doesn’t have to. Hezbollah, the potent terrorist force that serves as a proxy for both Iran and Syria, has effectively strangled any hope of Lebanon’s escaping the grasp of those rogue regimes. Syria’s influence is once more unchallenged in Beirut. Rather than witnessing an international tribunal arraigning Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and his underlings for the murder of his father, as well as the transformation of Lebanon into a genuine Arab democracy, Saad Harriri has been compelled to swallow the humiliation of fawning on his father’s murderer.

What changed? According to the New York Times, the failure of Harriri to maintain his country’s independence is due to one major difference between 2005 and 2009: “since then, the United States and the West have chosen to engage with Syria, not isolate it.” As a result, those who thought they had the West’s backing for resisting the thugs of Damascus have been forced to swallow their pride and swear loyalty to Assad in order to save their lives.

All of which means that we can chalk up another defeat for the United States that can be put at the feet of Barack Obama’s fetish for diplomacy for its own sake. Like the opposition in Iran, the pro-independence Lebanese have been left in the lurch while Washington fecklessly pursues deals with dictators who have no intention of playing ball. And why should they, given the administration’s distaste for confrontations and its inability to rally international support for action on behalf of either a nuclear-free Iran or a free Lebanon?

It is worth recalling that back in the fall of 2008, when Joe Biden and Sarah Palin met for the vice-presidential nominees’ debate, Biden committed a gaffe when he claimed that Hezbollah had already been kicked out of Lebanon. Palin didn’t pick up on this blooper, and Biden escaped the derision he deserved for a passage in which he claimed that the best solution for Lebanon was a NATO intervention (had Palin committed such a blunder, she would never have heard the end of it). Biden probably meant Syria when he said Hezbollah, and his intention was to claim that Bush’s policies had failed in Lebanon because of Hezbollah’s revival. But as much as it should be conceded that Bush failed to sufficiently follow up on the Cedar Revolution, we now see what a year of the Obama-Biden administration has achieved in the region.

Their blind belief in engagement, as well as increased pressure on Israel, has emboldened both Syria and Iran. Those wishing to see what kind of difference Obama has made in the Middle East need only regard the wince-inducing spectacle of Saad Harriri bowing to Assad. The consequences of American engagement are not a pretty sight.

Jonathan Tobin

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Israel not worried by Syria-Lebanon alliance

www.chinaview.cn 2009-12-21 02:17:46

by David Harris

JERUSALEM, Dec. 20 (Xinhua) -- The headline from two days of talks between top Syrian and Lebanese officials, as far as Israel is concerned, is that Beirut seemingly wants to realign itself with Damascus in order to reduce the Israeli threat.

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri was hosted by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over the weekend, the first time Hariri visited Syria since his father was assassinated less than five years ago. Many Lebanese blamed Syria for involving in the murder, however Damascus denies it had anything to do with it.

The visit is the latest stage in the rapprochement between the Levant neighbors, having exchanged ambassadors for the first time in some 60 years earlier this year.

However, Israeli analysts believe so far there should not be much making Israel worried in concern with the recent developments on the relations between the two countries, both are regarded as long-time enemies of Israelis.

INSEPARABLE NEIGHBORS

It has also been almost five years since Syrian forces left Lebanon after a 29-year military present. Pro-Western analysts in Lebanon argue that Syria still has a major influence over affairs of state in Beirut, particularly via Hezbollah and other allies.

Israeli experts agree with the idea. "The idea that Lebanon is free from Syria and its government is pro-American is just not serious," said Eyal Zisser, the director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.

The very fact that Hariri, who was the head of the anti-Syrian camp, paid his visit to Damascus is the proof of this, Zisser added.

The opinion is shared by Guy Bechor, who heads the Middle East Studies Division at Israel's Interdisciplinary Center. "It shows Lebanese politics can't function without Syria," Bechor said.

It also points to an inherent fear of Syria on Lebanon's part, he added.

Both Bechor and Zisser dismissed as incorrect a suggestion by a reporter for Israel Radio that Syria needs Lebanon more than Lebanon needs Syria. The journalist suggested on Sunday morning that Syria needs to show the international community it is back on good terms with Lebanon, in order to continue its return to the fold of the international community, particularly with Western nations.

Bechor and Zisser agree that it will not harm Syria's standing, but that, despite many of its actions, Syria is already well on its way back into the club of nations, particularly in the Middle East.

Either way, there appears to be a newfound closeness between Hariri and al-Assad, something that Hariri believes will stand the Arab world in better stead in face of the Israeli threat.

ISRAEL SEES NO CHANGE

The two Arab leaders discussed Israel during their three-hour session on Saturday, according to Bouthaina Shaaban, Syrian minister and senior adviser of al-Assad.

"The discussions also dealt with the Arab situation, the challenges facing Syria and Lebanon due to the Israeli occupation of Arab territories, the importance of coordination between Syria, Lebanon and the Arab countries as well as the Arab solidarity to close the Arab ranks and restore the legitimate rights," she told reporters.

In Zisser's opinion, Hariri is not taken particularly seriously by Israel. The Israeli government is far more concerned by the comments and actions of Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran.

There is no Israeli threat, even if Hariri spoke of one, said Bechor.

"There's no reason for Israel to attack Lebanon, unless it attacks Israel first," he said.

The only thing that unites the region, including Iran, is Israel, and so leaders throw out the Israel subject from time to time to show a commonality between Arab states, Bechor suggested. "It's used to bridge enormous divisions," he said.

Israel would like to see negotiations with Lebanon, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, top officials in Beirut have made clear that will not be happening anytime soon.

Israeli analysts believe Lebanon will not enter peace talks with Israel until Syria has successfully concluded a dialogue with Israel, resulting in the handover to Syria of the Golan Heights, which was captured by Israel during the 1967 War.

DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS

The real reason for Hariri's trip is that he is building on Syria to ensure his own political survival, said Zisser. The Shiites in Lebanon, headed by Hezbollah, are becoming increasingly strong and Hariri needs to ensure his own position by building a close bond with Syria, which is seen as being one of Hezbollah's backers, alongside Iran.

Bechor offers a different view on Hariri's domestic agenda and Syrian influence. In his opinion, even though Hezbollah sits in the Lebanese government, its power is not that great as it does not have a veto over ministerial decisions and as a result the moderate, more pro-Western line will win the day.

Lebanon is receiving the U.S. weaponry and helicopters because of its anti-Hezbollah and more so its anti-Syria stance, said Bechor. Commercial flights may soon resume between Lebanon and North America. Therefore, he is somewhat perplexed by Hariri's weekend visit to Damascus.

However, he sees all the machinations as being inter-Lebanese and inter-Arab and as a result not of any real concern for Israel.

Hezbollah's reaction to the Hariri visit has been upbeat. It was "a positive step that promotes a calm and relaxing climate," the organization's leader Hassan Nasrallah was quoted as saying by Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV. However, Hezbollah added that it would monitor events closely.

Lebanon remains, as it always has been, a deeply divided society and any apparent political maneuver is examined closely by all parties, fearing that a jump in one direction or another could knock the delicate balance of political life firmly off kilter.
Editor: Mu Xuequan

The Enduring Iran-Syria-Hezbollah Axis Part I

Friday, December 18, 2009

The Enduring Iran-Syria-Hezbollah Axis Part I

by Michael Rubin

1st part of 2

The Obama administration would like to move Syria into the camp of more moderate Arab states, but there is scant evidence that Syria is willing to give up its support for terrorist organizations. Like Iran, it remains a destabilizing and dangerous force in the region.

Key points in this Outlook:

* The Lebanese and Israeli border is calmer today than during the 2006 war, but the potential for regional conflict is great.

* Both the Syrian and Iranian governments have used Hezbollah to conduct proxy warfare against Israel.

* The Obama administration has tried to move Syria from a rejectionist state into the more moderate Arab camp, but there is no evidence that the engagement policy has worked.

The 2006 war between Lebanon and Israel took not only outside observers by surprise, but also Israel and the government of Lebanon. A day after an operation in which Hezbollah killed five Israeli soldiers and captured two others, the Israel Defense Forces struck Lebanese targets as far north as Beirut. Over subsequent days, the Israeli Air Force bombed Hezbollah-controlled neighborhoods in Beirut and struck targets in the country's

north. U.S., European, and Arab diplomats scrambled to prevent the spread of hostilities.

While Arab governments remained conspicuously silent, unwilling to support Hezbollah publicly, if at all, Iranian authorities egged on the militia. Speaking six days after the war began, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, the speaker of Iran's parliament, declared, "To Hassan Nasrallah [Hezbollah's secretary general] we say, well done. This religious scholar roars like a lion, and the blood of Imam [Ruhollah] Khomeini rages in his veins."[1] Iran's supreme leader encouraged Hezbollah to keep fighting. According to Nasrallah, Ali Khamenei sent him a letter two days after the war began, which stated, "You have a hard war ahead, but if you resist, you will triumph."[2]

United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution 1701 restored calm, but only a tenuous one. While the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) returned to Lebanon, it failed to prevent the resupply of Hezbollah with an arsenal even more advanced than before the 2006 conflict. The Lebanese and Israeli border may be calm today, but the potential for regional conflict has only grown. If a new conflict erupts, it likely will be deadlier and harder to contain to Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah now possesses missiles capable of striking not only Haifa, but also Tel Aviv.[3]

The Obama administration, meanwhile, has reached out diplomatically to both Syria and Iran in the belief that a less confrontational approach to conflict resolution might lead the two states to reconsider their rejectionist behavior. It has not worked. While Tehran and Damascus may welcome the incentives inherent in U.S. engagement, both states continue to use proxies to pursue radical aims and undercut stability. Iran may be Hezbollah's chief patron, but Syria is the lynchpin that makes Iranian support for foreign fighters possible. While Israel may be the immediate target of the Iran-Syria nexus, the partnership threatens broader U.S. interests.

A Proxy Is Born

Hezbollah formed against the backdrop of Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon as an Iranian proxy. Ali Mohtashimi, Iran's ambassador to Syria from 1982 to 1985, discussed the group's beginnings in an interview with the Iranian newspaper Shargh on August 3, 2008:

After the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Ayatollah Khomeini changed his mind about sending large forces to Syria and Lebanon. . . . I was really worried about Syria and Lebanon. I went to Tehran and met with Ayatollah Khomeini. As I was worried about Lebanon and enthusiastic about the idea of sending forces to Syria and Lebanon, I started talking about our responsibilities and what was going on in Lebanon. The imam cooled me down and said the forces we send to Syria and Lebanon would need huge logistical support. . . . The only remaining way is to train the Shi'a men there, and so Hezbollah was born.[4]

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) supported the new group as it fought or co-opted other Shia militias in southern Lebanon. The Iranian government is not shy about credit. On May 14, 2009, the London-based pan-Arab daily Ash-Sharq al-Awsat published an interview with Mohammad Hassan Akhtari, the Islamic Republic's ambassador to Syria from 1986 to 1997, and again from 2005 through 2007.

Correspondent Manal Lufti described Akhtari as "the operational father" of Hezbollah, "engineer of the special relationship" between Syria and Iran, and "coordinator of Iran's relations with Palestinian organizations in Damascus," groups listed annually as terrorist organizations in the State Department's Country Reports on Terrorism.[5] Indeed, according to Ash-Sharq al-Awsat, "the Iranian embassy in Damascus became the most important Ira-nian embassy in the world. It represented something akin to a 'regional center' for Iran's diplomatic activities that extended from Damascus to Beirut and the Palestinian territories and became privy to files on several matters, chief of which was Iran's relations with Syria, Hezbollah, [and] the Palestinian organizations."[6]

Iran and Syria worked jointly to unify the Shia who, through the early 1980s, were divided between Amal and Hezbollah. Akhtari described how he and Ghazi Kanaan, the Syrian intelligence chief in Lebanon, met over months to manage reconciliation, which ultimately led to the victory of Hezbollah, the more religious of the two groups.[7] While Syria cultivated a reputation for secularism among many Western academics, Akhtari describes a different regime.[8] "The late President Hafiz al-Asad trusted Ayatollah Khomeini and respected him. He was one of those who believed that any opposition to the Islamic Republic in any shape or form and under whatever pretext amounted to treason to the Arab, Islamic, and Palestinian causes."[9] By 1988, Hezbollah was the dominant force not only in southern Lebanon, where it painted itself as the vanguard of resistance against Israel's occupation, but also in Beirut, which would remain under Syrian occupation for the next seventeen years.

Hezbollah thrived under Syrian occupation. Both the Syrian and Iranian governments used Hezbollah to conduct proxy warfare against Israel. Symbolism is important in the Middle East. In April 2001, when Nasrallah met Khamenei, Nasrallah kissed Khamenei's hand, symbolizing fealty.[10] In the decade before Israel's 2000 withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah conducted more than three dozen suicide attacks against Israeli forces in Lebanon.[11] Between Israel's withdrawal and the eruption of war between Israel and Lebanon, Hezbollah conducted twenty-one additional operations against Israel itself.[12]

The Syrian government not only turned a blind eye toward the group's activities in Lebanon as Hezbollah systematically worked to undercut that state's sovereignty, but also facilitated a supply of Iranian missiles to Hezbollah. As Patrick Devenny, Henry M. Jackson National Security Fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., noted in a prescient article six months before the 2006 war, "The Hezbollah missile threat to Israel has expanded not only in quantity but also in quality. In recent years, the group's operational artillery reach has grown. Experts and analysts generally put the Hezbollah rocket force somewhere between 10,000 and 12,000 missiles. The heart of this arsenal remains rooted in Hezbollah's massive stocks--perhaps 7,000 to 8,000--of 107mm and 122mm Katyusha rockets, virtually all of which were supplied directly from existing Iranian army stocks."[13]

The Israel Defense Forces' failure to eradicate Hezbollah in the 2006 war led many analysts to declare Hezbollah the victor.[14] Hezbollah had survived Israel's onslaught and become the first Arab entity to hit Haifa since Israel's founding in 1948.[15] Robert G. Rabil, director of graduate studies at Florida Atlantic University and a well-regarded Syria and Lebanon analyst, went further, suggesting that Hezbollah's rise may have come at Syria's expense.[16]

Michael Rubin

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors../..

The Enduring Iran-Syria-Hezbollah Axis. Part II

by Michael Rubin

2nd part of 2

Is Syria Still Important?

Syria enabled Hezbollah's rise. It became the transit point for Iranian arms. In addition, Syria provided crucial safe haven for offices, personnel, and organization, not only for Hezbollah, but also for Palestinian terror groups and, since 2003, Islamist terrorists operating in Iraq. Through it all, Iranian support has been key.

In a 1996 speech to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, then-secretary of state Warren Christopher noted that Iran provides significant financial assistance to many terrorist groups that maintain offices in Lebanon. "Iran has not stopped at rhetoric. It meets frequently with all the major terrorist groups--including Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the PFLP-GC [Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command]. . . . It provides them with money--up to several million dollars a year in the case of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and others, and up to $100 million a year for Hezbollah alone. Iran also supplies them with arms and material support, training, and--in some cases--operational guidance."[17] More recently, Western diplomats in Lebanon estimate that Iranian assistance to Hezbollah is closer to $200 million annually.[18]

The arms trade continues through Syria. As the German military prepared to enforce the prohibition on Hezbollah resupply under terms of its UNIFIL mandate, the German news magazine Focus reported on October 9, 2006, that Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst, BND) had concluded that the Islamic Republic had already resupplied missiles to Hezbollah in the aftermath of the war. The BND reported that the resupply had occurred over land through Syria.[19] In 2008, Akhtari estimated that the volume of total trade ranged from $2.5 to $3 billion.[20] While illegal arms are but a tiny fraction of that figure, such trade traditionally provides cover for arms transfers. On May 29, 2007, for example, a Turkish train carrying construction supplies from Iran to Syria hit a mine allegedly laid by a Kurdish terrorist group and derailed. Police discovered an undeclared cache of Iranian arms, including rocket launchers and rifles.[21] The Turkish route into Syria may become more important as Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoˇgan tightens relations with both Tehran and Damascus. Regardless, Iranian cargo planes land frequently at Damascus International Airport.[22] Suspicion over their role in the illicit weapons trade led the European Union to sanction Iran Air Cargo.[23]

Hezbollah is not the only recipient of Iranian largesse on Syrian territory. Matthew Levitt, a former Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) terror and financial analyst, noted in congressional testimony that estimates of Iranian assistance to Hamas ranged between $20 million and $50 million each year through the 1990s.[24] Much of this money was and still is channeled through Hezbollah.[25] Upon Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's death in 2004, for example, Iranian intelligence reportedly channeled $22 million through Hezbollah to fund Palestinian terrorist groups more sympathetic to the Iranian line.[26]

The assassination of Hezbollah terrorist Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus highlights the crucial role Syria plays in international terrorism, regardless of its diplomatic posturing. On February 12, 2008, a car bomb in Damascus killed Mughniyeh, a fixture on the FBI's most-wanted list until his death. In the wake of Mughniyeh's death, Akhtari's comments highlighted the importance of Syria in the terror nexus. "We trust Syria," the Iranian ambassador explained. "It is their concern more than ours because Mughniyeh was their guest in Damascus and, of course, because of the close relations between Hezbollah and Syria."[27] Indeed, Hezbollah agents may do Syria and Iran's dirty work, not only against Israel and Western forces in Iraq, but also against Lebanon itself. A lengthy UN investigation of the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri appears ready to finger Hezbollah as the trigger party.[28]

Syria Remains Pivotal

Desire to make progress on the Middle East peace process, unravel the Syria-Iran axis, and end Syrian support for terrorism motivates the Obama administration's efforts to flip Syria diplomatically from its role as a rejectionist state into the more moderate camp populated by countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Jordan, which may not always be pro-American in the expression of their foreign policy, but at least keep their support for terrorism indirect and do not countenance Iranian influence.[29]

There is no evidence, however, that the State Department's engagement policy has worked. Syrian concessions--allowing the American Cultural Center to reopen, for example--have been halfhearted and more than offset by revelations of continued Syrian proliferation efforts and its facilitation of terror.[30] Nor does it appear that Tehran and Damascus have loosened their relations. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has met Syrian president Bashar Assad repeatedly, most recently last month in Turkey.[31]

Welcoming Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Muallim to Tehran on November 5, 2009, Ahmadinejad said, "Comprehensive Tehran-Damascus relations keep getting deeper, wiser, and stronger with the passage of each new day, and such relations are not easily subjected to other developments."[32]

Meanwhile, successful U.S. and Israeli interdiction efforts of Iranian arms at high sea, while embarrassing to Iran, have made Syria's role as a route for weapons delivery more important. The last decade has witnessed several high-profile interceptions of weapons:

ON JANUARY 29, 2001, THE ISRAELI NAVY SEIZED TWO CONTAINERS OF WEAPONS, REPORTEDLY OFFLOADED IN WATERTIGHT CONTAINERS BY THE CALYPSO, A LEBANESE ARMS-SMUGGLING SHIP.

ON MAY 7, 2001, THE ISRAELI NAVY SEIZED THE SANTORINI WHILE IT WAS ON ITS FOURTH ARMS-SMUGGLING MISSION. THIS SHIP CARRIED 107MM ROCKETS, MORTARS, ROCKET-PROPELLED GRENADES, ANTIAIRCRAFT MISSILES, AND ANTITANK WEAPONRY.

ON JANUARY 3, 2002, THE ISRAELI NAVY INTERCEPTED THE KARINE-A, A GAZA-BOUND FREIGHTER, WHILE IT WAS ON THE RED SEA. ONBOARD, NAVAL COMMANDOS FOUND FIFTY TONS OF SOPHISTICATED IRANIAN WEAPONRY.[33]

ON MAY 20, 2003, THE ISRAELI NAVY INTERCEPTED THE ABU HASSAN, A FISHING VESSEL CARRYING WEAPONS, EXPLOSIVES, AND DETONATORS.[34]

ON JANUARY 19-20, 2009, THE U.S. NAVY INTERCEPTED THE MONCHEGORSK, AN IRANIAN FREIGHTER CARRYING MILITARY SUPPLIES TO SYRIA IN VIOLATION OF UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 1559.[35]

ON NOVEMBER 4, 2009, THE ISRAELI NAVY INTERCEPTED THE FRANCOP, AN ANTIGUA-FLAGGED VESSEL THAT WAS ALLEGEDLY CARRYING THREE HUNDRED TONS OF IRANIAN WEAPONRY TO HEZBOLLAH.[36]

The importance of Syria grows as authorities in Tehran make clear their commitment to support Hezbollah and Palestinian groups, which the United States considers terrorists. When Ahmadinejad visited Damascus last spring, he met with the leaders of Damascus-based terrorist groups and promised them continued support.[37] Less than three weeks later, Ali Larijani, the speaker of the parliament whom some American journalists dub a pragmatist,[38] declared, "We are proud to defend Hamas and Hezbollah. We are not trying to hide it. They are fighters in the path of God, and you can call them whatever you like," adding that the idea that Tehran would ever abandon the two groups was a "U.S. dream."[39]

The Danger of Syria's Safe Haven

Syria's continued support for terrorists and other foreign fighters undermines any diplomatic gains the United States achieves. Because of Syria, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 has failed to prevent Hezbollah's rearmament. Meanwhile, the IRGC has more political power now than at any previous point in its history.[40] As such, statements by its commander that "in the near future, we will witness the destruction of Israel, the aggressor, this cancerous microbe Israel, at the able hands of the soldiers of the community of Hezbollah," should raise concerns in Washington and European capitals about the possibility of a regional conflagration.[41]

Recent reports that Iran transshipped gas masks and chemical weapons through Syria to Hezbollah should only heighten concern as the Islamic Republic increases its defiance in international discussions about its nuclear activities.[42] Across the U.S. political spectrum, analysts agree that, should Israel, the United States, or any other power strike at Iran's nuclear facilities, the Islamic Republic would respond, at least in part, by activating its proxy terrorist networks. Palestinian groups in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and foreign fighters in Iraq all have Syrian support in common.[43] Not only Hezbollah's rhetoric but also its track record suggest a willingness to attack Western targets, should war against Iran erupt.

Given both the circumstances and the stakes, it is ironic that U.S. officials continue to accept the fiction of Syrian sincerity. As difficult as stopping terrorist supplies may be, the likelihood that proxy groups will voluntarily forfeit their capability is low, and the cost of allowing terrorists to use such arms is high.

Michael Rubin

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Notes

1.Middle East Media Research Institute, "Iranian Parliament Speaker: The Blood of Khomeini Rages in Nasrallah's Veins; The Confrontation Is Not Only in Lebanon, but Deep Inside Occupied Palestine and within the Range of the Lion Clubs of Hizbullah . . . No Place in Israel Will Be Safe," Special Dispatch 1210, July 21, 2006, available at www.memri.org/ report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/1749.htm (accessed December 14, 2009).

2."Enemies Working to Eliminate the Guardianship of the Supreme Jurisconsult," Partow-e Sokhan, in Persian, December 13, 2006, in Open Source Center IAP20061220011007.

3.Yoav Stern, "Report: Hezbollah's New Missiles Have Range 'Israel Can't Fathom,'" Haaretz (Tel Aviv), August 29, 2008.

4.Quoted in Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah," Ash-Sharq al-Awsat (London), May 18, 2008.

5.U.S. Department of State, "State Sponsors of Terrorism," Country Reports on Terrorism 2008 (Washington, DC, 2009), available at www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2008/122436.htm (accessed December 11, 2009); and Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

6.Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

7.Ibid.

8.Patrick Seale, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East (London: I. B. Tauris, 1990), 169-79.

9.Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

10.Mehdi Khalaji, "Iran's Shadow Government in Lebanon" (PolicyWatch 1124, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, July 19, 2006), available at www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2489 (accessed December 11, 2009).

11.Robert Pape, Dying to Win (New York: Random House, 2005), 265-81.

12.Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "Hizbullah Attacks along Israel's Northern Border May 2000-June 2006," June 1, 2006, available at www.mfa.gov.il/NR/exeres/9EE216D7-82EF-4274-B80D-6BBD1803E8A7 (accessed December 11, 2009).

13.Patrick Devenny, "Hezbollah's Strategic Threat to Israel," Middle East Quarterly (Winter 2006).

14.Efraim Inbar, "How Israel Bungled the Second Lebanon War," Middle East Quarterly (Summer 2007).

15.Nadia Abou El-Magd, "For the Majority of Arabs, Hezbollah Won, Israel Is No Longer the Undefeatable Army," Associated Press, August 18, 2006.

16.Robert G. Rabil, "Has Hezbollah's Rise Come at Syria's Expense?" Middle East Quarterly (Fall 2007).

17.Warren Christopher, "Fighting Terrorism: Challenges for the Peacemakers" (Soref Symposium, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1996), available at www.washingtoninstitute.org/ templateC07.php?CID=69 (accessed December 11, 2009).

18.Scott Wilson, "Lebanese Wary of a Rising Hezbollah," Washington Post, December 20, 2004.

19.Josef Hufelschulte, "Neue feuerkraft für Hisbollah" [New Fire Power for Hezbollah], Focus (Munich), October 9, 2006.

20.Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

21."Konteynırda silahları" [Weapons Container], Hürriyet (Istanbul), May 30, 2007.

22.Matthew Levitt, "The New Lebanon: Democratic Reform and State Sponsorship" (PolicyWatch 1016, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, July 21, 2005), available at www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2346 (accessed December 11, 2009).

23.European Union, "Acts Adopted under Title V of the EU Treaty," Official Journal of the European Union L 61/49 (February 28, 2007), available at http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2007:061:0049:0055:EN:PDF (accessed December 11, 2009).

24.House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation, Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror: Threatening U.S. Security, Global Stability, and Regional Peace, 109th Cong., 1st sess., February 16, 2005.

25.Ibid.

26."Iran Expands Its Palestinian Control; Offers al-Khadoumi Five Million Dollars," Al-Watan (Kuwait), December 13, 2004, quoted in House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation, Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror: Threatening U.S. Security, Global Stability, and Regional Peace.

27.Manal Lufti, "The Making of Hezbollah."

28.Erich Follath, "Breakthrough in Tribunal Investigation: New Evidence Points to Hezbollah in Hariri Murder," Der Spiegel Online, May 23, 2009, available at www.spiegel.de/international/ world/0,1518,626412,00.html (accessed December 14, 2009).

29.Seymour M. Hersh, "Syria, Israel, and the Obama Administration," The New Yorker, April 6, 2009.

30."IAEA Inspects Nuclear Research Reactor in Syria," Agence France Presse, November 17, 2009.

31. "Ahmadinejad ba ra'is jomhuri-ye Suriya didar kard" [Ahmadinejad Meets with the President of the Republic of Syria], Asr-e Iran (Tehran), November 9, 2009.

32."Ahmadinejad: Regional Conditions in Iran's, Syria's Favor," Fars News Agency (Tehran), November 5, 2009.

33.Akiva J. Lorenz, "The Threat of Maritime Terrorism to Israel," International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, September 24, 2007, available at www.ict.org.il/Articles/tabid/66/Articlsid/ 251/ currentpage/6/Default.aspx (accessed December 11, 2009).

34.Shaul Shay, The Axis of Evil: Iran, Hizballah, and thePalestinian Terror (Edison, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 2005), 156.

35. "Cyprus Unloads 'Gaza Arms' Ship," BBC News, February 13, 2009.

36."Israel Navy Chief: Hezbollah-Bound Iran Ship Carried Hundreds of Tons of Arms," Haaretz.com (Tel Aviv), November 4, 2009, available at www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/ 1125807.html (accessed December 14, 2009).

37."Iran and Syria Continue to Support Resistance," Gulf News (Abu Dhabi), May 6, 2009.

38.See, for example, Barbara Slavin, "How Bush Saved Iran's Neocons," Foreign Policy (November 2007).

39."Tehran Proud to Support Hamas, Hezbollah," PressTV.ir, May 25, 2009, available at www.presstv.ir/ detail.aspx?id=95985 (accessed December 7, 2009).

40.Danielle Pletka and Ali Alfoneh, "Iran's Hidden Revolution," New York Times, June 17, 2009, available at www.aei.org/ article/100635.

41."Israel to Be Destroyed by Hezbollah," Fars News Agency (Tehran), February 19, 2008.

42."Hezbollah Silent over Report that Group Got Chemical Weapons," Daily Star (Beirut), September 4, 2009.

43.Brian Fishman, ed., Bombers, Bank Accounts & Bleedout: Al-Qa'ida's Road In and Out of Iraq (West Point, NY: Harmony Project, 2008).