Iran to Test First Nuclear Bomb by 2012?
Reports claim that Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered the testing program to proceed immediately.
June 9, 2011 - 11:00 am
According to sources in the Revolutionary Guards of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered them to proceed immediately with the completion of the Iranian atomic bomb project, including testing and arming of missiles with nuclear payload.
Ayatollah Khamenei’s decision is based on a belief by the Islamic regime’s strategists that both America and Israel lack the courage and the ability to dismantle the Iranian nuclear facilities. The Iranian regime believes that America and Israel fear Iran’s retaliation, and that it has had them frozen in place and confused as to what action to take next. They have concluded that this presents a great opportunity for the Iranian regime to become a nuclear-armed state without any interference from the outside.Khamenei offered the same message on June 1 at the Imam Hussein Military Academy:
The Great Satan, since the early days of the Revolution, has mobilized its military, financial, propaganda, and political empire to defeat the Islamic Revolution and the Iranian nation, but the political realities in Iran and the region show that the U.S. has been brought to its knees by the Islamic Revolution.
He further stated that the failure of the U.S. policies in the Middle East and the promising revival of Islam in the region are the realization of the divine promises to the Iranian nation — and that the recent events herald the realization of God’s promise that Islam and the Muslims will ultimately triumph.
The authorization for nuclear weapons by the supreme leader has been followed by the recent announcement by the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Fereidoon Abbasi, that Iran will start the installation of more advanced centrifuges at the previously secret site, the Fordo plant near the city of Qom. He also said that this will triple Iran’s production of 20 percent enriched uranium.
A chilling article titled “The Next Day after the Iranian Nuclear Bomb Test Will be a Normal Day” recently appeared on an Iranian website, Gerdab.ir, which is run by the Revolutionary Guards. This is the first time that an outlet belonging to the Iranian government openly talked about a nuclear bomb — Iran has insisted repeatedly that their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
The commentary states that after the Iranian nuclear bomb test, everyone will be able to go about their business as usual. The explosion will not be so strong as to bring destruction to the neighboring areas, though not so weak that the Iranian scientists have difficulties with their test. But it will be a day for Iranians to be filled with pride. The article even predicts playfully how Western media will cover the event.
Most chilling is how the article ends with a quote from the Quran (Al Enfal 60):
And prepare against them whatever you are able of power and of steeds of war by which you may terrify the enemy of Allah.
Iran, which was for years enriching only to the 3.5 percent level due to fear of retaliation by the international community, started its enrichment to the 20 percent level last year after the Obama administration’s soft approach toward the regime. Twenty percent enrichment is 80 percent of the way to weaponization.
Iran currently has over 3600 kilograms of enriched uranium at 3.5 percent, enough for three nuclear bombs if enriched further. It also has an announced inventory of 40 kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium. If true, it will take the Iranians only two months to further enrich that stockpile into 20 kilograms of enriched uranium over 90 percent, sufficient for one nuclear warhead.
The IAEA revealed in a recent report that Iran has sought and experimented with certain technologies that could make a type of atom bomb known as an implosion device, considered more advanced than the bomb America used on Hiroshima.
I revealed on May 31 that the Revolutionary Guards are now in possession of two nuclear capable warheads, with eight more to be delivered within the next ten months. The Guards expect to have at least two fully armed nuclear warheads before the end of the current Iranian calendar year, March 2012.
America and its European allies have continuously tried to change the behavior of the regime with incentives and negotiations. The Iranian leaders refused every time to accept any offer, buying time in order to get to the point of no return. The jihadists in Iran will have their nuclear bomb, and we have only ourselves to blame.
UPDATES ON IRAN
JPost: "Iran has been caught red-handed in 10 different attempts in recent years to transfer weaponry to terrorists throughout the Middle East, including a recent case, in April, when a shipment of advanced missiles was caught en-route to Taliban forces in Afghanistan, according to a United Nations report obtained Thursday by The Jerusalem Post. The report was submitted three weeks ago to the Security Council by a UN group of experts that monitors compliance with UN sanctions imposed on Iran. The report was leaked to the Internet and obtained by a number of leading Israeli defense analysts. The report documents all 10 cases of arms smuggling, including the case of the Victoria cargo ship, which was stopped by the Israel Navy earlier this year carrying arms for Hamas. In the most recent case cited, British forces in Afghanistan found a weapons shipment of advanced Iranian-made anti-ship missiles and 122 mm. rockets en route to Taliban forces in Afghanistan." http://t.uani.com/l0dzkS
Haaretz: "A report by a panel of experts convened by the United Nations reveals that over the past year Iran has stepped up the pace of its efforts to develop long-range missiles. The report by the panel, which was convened a year ago after the UN Security Council imposed stiffer sanctions against Iran in an effort to halt the Iranian nuclear program, has not been officially released. In a campaign led by the United States, the United Nations has shown concern over Iran's development of medium- and long-range missiles in addition to the nuclear program itself. Iran's efforts to develop missiles have therefore been monitored along with Iranian weapons-smuggling operations... The report, which has apparently also been obtained by intelligence agencies in the West, was compiled several months ago. It appears that pressure from China resulted in the delay in officially releasing it. The report cites apparently reliable information indicating that the North Koreans transferred prohibited missile technology to Iran via China. The report says the trials on the Shahab-3 missile demonstrated a range of 900 kilometers, while the Sejil-1 had a 2,000-kilometer reach. The experts determined that, as with its nuclear program, Iran continues to engage in covert operations to advance its missile capabilities, bypassing sanctions imposed by the UN." http://t.uani.com/l1E1J5
Korea Herald: "The United States urged South Korea to press on Iran sanctions during a meeting of senior financial officials from the two countries Friday, a Seoul official said. Undersecretary David Cohen of the U.S. Treasury Department met Deputy Minister Choi Jong-ku of the South Korean Finance Ministry at the ministry building in Gwacheon, south of Seoul. The United States, along with the International Atomic Energy Agency, has accused Iran of seeking to acquire low-enriched uranium that can be used to make nuclear weapons. During the meeting, Cohen emphasized the importance of continued implementation of international sanctions aimed at Iran's nuclear program and asked South Korea to support the international efforts. 'It (Cohen's visit) was aimed at encouraging Seoul to prevent Iran from accessing the international financial system to facilitate its illicit nuclear and weapons program,' a ministry official said on condition of anonymity." http://t.uani.com/laGSnP
UN News Centre: "The Security Council today extended the mandate of a panel of experts established last year to monitor and enforce sanctions against Iran because of its failure to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding its nuclear programme. Today's resolution, adopted unanimously, extends the group's mandate for one year through 9 June 2012. The Council has imposed four rounds of sanctions on Iran since 2006, including a ban on all items which could contribute to the country's enrichment of uranium, a necessary step for both peaceful and militaristic uses of nuclear energy, and arms sales and a freeze on assets." http://t.uani.com/jxi9PT
Top Stories
WT: "The Obama administration imposed new economic and travel sanctions on Iran's police and paramilitary forces for their role in violence against protesters after 2009 elections. The sanctions, announced by the State and Treasury departments, singled out the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the domestic Basij and the Law Enforcement Forces, as well as Ismail Ahmadi Moghaddam, the forces commander. 'Today's sanctions reflect our commitment to hold accountable those governments and officials that violate human rights and deprive their citizens of the opportunities and future they deserve,' Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Thursday. The three groups were singled out because of their participation in attacks against protesters after the 2009 presidential election when incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defeated Mir-Hossein Mousavi in a vote that many said was marked by fraud... The move by the Obama administration is largely symbolic. It freezes financial assets of the groups and prohibits contacts between them and U.S. citizens and businesses. It also blocks members of the groups, as well as Mr. Moghaddam, from visiting the United States." http://t.uani.com/j0v22J
Plains Daily: "The Fargo-based Bobcat company and its South Korean parent company Doosan have pledged to 'cease doing all business in Iran' and will 'not sell any products to third parties if the ultimate destination is known to be Iran.' Last month, former Ambassador Mark Wallace's non-profit group United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI) sent a letter to Doosan and Bobcat, calling on them to immediately end their business dealings in Iran, particularly those in Iran's energy sector. In a May 27, 2011 response letter to UANI, Doosan executives stated that they have 'adopted a policy of not accepting any new orders or assignments from Iran and prohibiting all new business transactions in Iran.' This policy carries over to its Bobcat Company subsidiary. Bobcat did not deal directly with Iran, but instead was selling its products in Iran through Tehran based Touranto via a European affiliate distributor. Last year, that European company ceased supplying Touranto with Bobcat equipment 'in an effort to be sensitive to concerns about Iran and to comply with recently enacted U.S. sanctions.'" http://t.uani.com/m0iu3q
Reuters: "Russia and China joined Western powers on Thursday in telling Iran its 'consistent failure' to comply with U.N. resolutions 'deepened concerns' about possible military dimensions to its nuclear programme. The United States, Germany, France, Britain, Russia and China issued the statement a day after Iran said it would triple production of high-grade uranium and shift it to an underground bunker which would be protected from possible U.S. or Israeli air strikes. Russia and China have in the past been less inclined to try to isolate Iran over its uranium enrichment which Tehran says is solely to generate electricity. Western nations suspect the Islamic Republic wants to enrich uranium to a higher level so as to be able to make nuclear weapons if it chooses. 'We call on Iran to cooperate fully with the agency,' said a joint statement by the six powers at a closed-door session of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna. 'Outstanding issues need to be resolved in order to exclude the existence of possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear programme.' It did not mention Iran's plan to expand enrichment." http://t.uani.com/kq1OY7
Human RightsCNN: "Iranian prison guards abused and assaulted two U.S. hikers who have been detained in the Islamic Republic since 2009, according to their friend Sarah Shourd, who was released last year. In an interview with the BBC this week, Shourd described the abuse that Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer experienced before Shourd was released on $500,000 bail in September, according to a statement released by the families Thursday. A guard at Tehran's notorious Evin Prison was furious that Fattal took extra food and pushed him down the stairs, Shourd said. The guard repeatedly threw Bauer against a wall of his cell until his head began bleeding. She said the three had feared that they would be executed soon after they were arrested, when a guard began cocking his gun. The two men are allowed limited communication these days, and their families have no way of knowing their condition. 'My worst fear is that they're not safe,' Shourd said. 'They don't have consular access, they're not allowed to see their lawyer, and we fear the worst.'" http://t.uani.com/ksdJQM
WashPost: "University scholars in Iran are seeking protection in greater numbers since that nation's controversial 2009 presidential election, according to a report from the Scholar Rescue Fund. Founded in 2002, the Scholar Rescue Fund has aided persecuted scholars around the globe. It arose from earlier, episodic efforts by the Institute for International Education to aid threatened scholars in times of conflict - from the Bolshevik Revolution through Nazi Germany. Today, much of the help is directed to contemporary political strife in Iraq and, more recently, Iran. The fund has seen applications for help spike in Iran, from roughly five a year in the last decade to more than 20 in 2010. The group reviewed 27 cases worldwide in spring, half of them from Iran, and awarded new or renewed fellowships to 23 scholars, according to an Activities Report for Spring 2011. Institute President Allan Goodman discussed the effort recently for this publication's On Leadership feature." http://t.uani.com/ix9MFU
Domestic Politics
WSJ: "Mr. Ahmadinejad's detractors have accused the president and his advisers, including the Presidential Palace's top imam, of belonging to a cult-like ring that promotes superstition and mystical fanaticism. Some have said that Mr. Ahmadinejad is under a spell cooked up by his chief of staff, Esfanidar Rahim Mashaie. Mr. Mashaie is already a controversial figure for promoting nationalism over religion, and for his alleged affinity for astrology and mysticism. The president was acting 'strange' and 'irrational' during a recent dispute over dismissing a minister, said the Ayatollah Mohamad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi in a magazine interview. The former spiritual leader for Mr. Ahmadinejad said it appeared the president's 'free will has been taken away.' Mr. Mashaie has denied the allegations, jokingly challenging the clerics to use their Islamic teachings to remove his spell on the president, according to the official Iranian news agency IRNA. Mr. Ahmadinejad has also denied the allegations. 'Those who have spoken in recent days about the influence of fortune tellers and Jinn on government were telling jokes and it made us laugh,' Mr. Ahmadinejad said last month, according to Iranian media reports. But the controversy hasn't gone away. Opposition websites and conservative newspapers continue to carry articles poking fun at the president's inner circle. One cartoon depicted Messrs. Ahmadinejad and Mashaie as two Jinn with horns and tails standing side-by-side. Some of the most outlandish allegations have been against Abbas Ghaffari, a member of Mr. Ahmadinejad's office, recently arrested as a ring leader of sorcery in the government and deemed influential on the president." http://t.uani.com/j4WK0D
Foreign Affairs
Reuters: "Iran summoned Britain's top diplomat in Tehran Thursday to protest against accusations it was helping Syria crush anti-government protests.. An Iranian Foreign Ministry official told British charge d'affaires Jane Marriott that accusations levelled by Foreign Secretary William Hague were 'without any evidence or reason,' the official IRNA news agency reported. Hague told parliament this week that Tehran, an ally of Syria in its support for anti-Israel militant groups Hamas and Hizbollah, had been helping to suppress protests where rights groups say hundreds of Syrians may have been killed. 'Iran is combining brutal suppression of opposition leaders at home with the provision of equipment and technical advice to help the Syrian regime crush protests in Syria,' Hague said. 'This is unacceptable, and compounds our concern about Iran's behaviour and its intentions over its nuclear program.'" http://t.uani.com/iNs3ip
Opinion & Analysis
Avi Jorisch in Al Arabiya: "Through the Comprehensive Iran Sanction Accountability and Divestment Act (CISADA), passed in 2010, the United States Congress has taken strong measures to check Iran's ability to abuse the international banking sector and the refined energy space. Despite this act, however, Iran is using its vast crude oil reserves to skirt financial sanctions and gain access to huge sums of hard currency. Nevertheless, there are additional methods that members of Congress should consider deploying to curb Iran's access to much-needed funds. Iran holds the third-largest known oil reserves in the world and the second-largest natural gas reserves. According to Oil and Gas Journal, as of January 2010, Iran had roughly 10 percent of the world's total oil reserves, with approximately 40 oil fields-27 onshore and 13 offshore-that hold mid-grade-quality crude similar to that found in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. In 2008, Iran exported approximately $73 billion worth of oil, which represented half of its government revenue. Crude oil and its derivatives accounted for nearly 80 percent of the country's total exports. Until now, international sanctions efforts have focused on refined petroleum and gas products. Major oil companies are finally turning their backs on this energy giant. In addition, measures like CISADA have significantly curbed international investment in Iran's energy infrastructure. But CISADA does not cover crude oil and the Islamic Republic is still able to export this commodity to the tune of billions of dollars annually. The top four importers of Iranian crude are Japan, China, India and South Korea. Depriving Iran of the ability to sell this commodity in the international market or significantly curtailing this ability would likely show the ruling Mullahtocracy that the writing is on the wall... What, then, can the US and likeminded allies do to stop Iran from selling its crude, without coming perilously close to declaring war? US law currently prohibits American companies or entities from purchasing Iranian oil, but because crude oil's origins are murky, law enforcement authorities have been unable to enforce this. Everyone knows that oil tankers bringing their goods to American shores are carrying Iranian oil. The US government may wish to introduce a law requiring every oil tanker coming to the U.S. to declare that it has not docked in an Iranian port in the last 36 months and is not carrying Iranian oil, and to submit to an inspection to prove this. Failure to comply could result in serious fines and other penalties. Punitive measures might include the temporary seizure of the transporting vessel and 'jailing' the boat for a set period, but confiscation of the oil without compensation should certainly be among these measures. Using simple online tools, any intelligence agency, law enforcement official and even policymakers can track where oil tankers are docked... Would requiring tankers to declare that they are not carrying Iranian oil and have not docked in an Iranian port really provide measurable policy impact? In short, the answer is yes. Non-Iranian tankers would need to choose between the US market and the Iranian market, and it is a safe bet that most would choose the American market. This would seriously impede Iran's ability to export its oil using non-Iranian tankers, which would leave only Iranian vessels, which are aging and also blacklisted. This, coupled with Iran's limited insurance and reinsurance options, is a significant one-two punch."
