World Threats.com
Debka is reporting that the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Siyassa says that Osama bin Laden is currently living in Savzevar, Iran (36 degrees 12 minutes North, 57 degrees 40 minutes East).
Debkafile’s intelligence sources disclosed Monday night that Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan and his intelligence chiefs are well aware that Bin Laden and Zawahiri are hiding in Iran. The leak to the Kuwait paper was intended to show the Obama administration that the Turkish leader’s ties with Iran had grown intense enough for him to be fully in the picture of Iran’s secret sanctuary for the authors of the 9/11 attacks on the United States. … Debkafile’s counter-terror sources disclose that the purpose of airing their precise whereabouts at this time, aside from implicating the Turkish leader, was first, to warn al Qaeda’s leaders that their hideout was blown and they had better move on - which would make them easier to catch; and, second, to nudge US president Barak Obama into a decision to go after them.
Analysis. This news is a bit unexpected. At least the revelation that bin Laden was in Iran had been hinted at for a long time. There could be little other reason for so many members of the bin Laden family to be “guests” of the Iranians in Tehran. Let me add this to the mix. Jerusalem Post is reporting on a meeting between Bashar Assad and Erdogan in Istanbul.We will have to wait a while to see if Debka, or someone else, will let us know who accompanied Assad to Istanbul. Or perhaps the rest of the entourage went to Ankara. Meetings between the two general staffs?
Turkey has a bit of a strategic problem with relation to Israel. They have no common border. Nor do I remember Turkey having much of an amphibious capability. But consider a joint operation by the Syrian and Turkish armies to invade Israel. The Syrians have little chance of invading Israel and doing much more than dying ignominiously as they have in the past. The last time the Turkish Army fought, a Turkish brigade in Korea made a mess of a whole lot of Chinese.
It appears to me that the Kuwaiti newspaper is being used as a place to leak important information that is intended to embarrass Iran. I doubt that the Israelis are doing the leaking. I suspect it is the Saudis who are doing the leaking. Israel is not the only country that wants the U. S. to attack Iran. It may well be apparent to the Saudis that the U. S. must get actively involved to tilt the balance of power back in favor of the anti-Iran coalition unofficial though it may mostly be.
The Turks and now the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps have both offered to escort the next wave of “Freedom Flotilla” ships to attempt to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza. Even though the war may star on the sea, it will be concluded on land. It will be very messy and may well involve the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons. There is no good end to this mess that does not involve the Turkish military removing the Erdogan government.
Posted by Richard Radcliffe at 3:49 pm
