The inevitable followup to Clinton's own timeline walk down, which was the inevitable followup to her walk down on "crippling sanctions." Keep in mind that France is probably the most hard line P5+1 country on Iran, and feast your eyes on the "strong sticks" that Obama is bringing to bear on the mullahs:
A United Nations resolution on new sanctions against Iran may not be ready until June and if a vote on it fails, European states could take unilateral measures instead, French and Finnish ministers said on Sunday. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said France remained determined to get UN backing for sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program, but indicated that the support of Russia and China among the five permanent Security Council members was some way off... "Before June I hope, but who am I to hope or decide," he said, pointing out that France had originally hoped to get a UN sanctions package prepared in February, when it was chairing the Security Council
You know what's weird? A few weeks ago when it seemed like China was unmovable - and that military action was the only option - a rush of articles and statements came out saying the exact opposite. The AFP headlined with "Chances good for China to yield on Iran sanctions: experts," suggesting that Beijing wouldn't risk isolation over Iran. Reuters found their own experts to say the same thing. Then a month later British officials also said the exact same thing. But here we are and here China is still blocking any kind of robust restrictions regime, just like they've always done.
The WH is desperately trying to pretend that Obama's super-keen "strong sticks" profundity was something other than empty bluster. So maybe carve out a trade exemption for China so they'll symbolically affirm a broader hard line policy? Nope. How about unilateral action against Western companies that do business with Iran? Nope. It turns out that biting sanctions are politically impossible and roundabout sanctions are pragmatically unworkable. Even if Iran couldn't use states like Brazil to avoid restrictions - and they certainly can - the US can't even stop itself from funding sanctions-busting US firms. How are we going to enforce an international regime?
Meanwhile the Iranian nuclear program continues to roll ahead, soon to be protected by an upgraded air defense system. You can tell that we're nearing the point of no return. The Iran experts who used to insist that the mullahs had neither the political will nor the technical means for weaponization are now saying that Iran can be contained. Even Brzezinski agrees, and if anyone's good at reading the mullahs it's the guy who lost Iran to political Islam. Some experts have even explained - at length - why an Iranian bomb would be a great idea. Very sophisticated!
But not to worry, because their Iran expert friends think that China's about to get on board an effective sanctions regime. Any day now.
References and related after the jump...
Continue reading "Surprise: French FM Says No Iran Sanctions Before June" »
