By Warren P. Strobel | McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON — Here's a war game involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. that shows how unintended consequences can spin out of control:
With diplomacy failing and precious intelligence just received about two new secret Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel launches a pre-emptive strike against Tehran's nuclear complex. The strike is successful, wiping out six of Iran's key sites and setting back its suspected quest for a bomb by years.
But what happens next isn't pretty.
The U.S. president and his National Security Council try to keep the crisis from escalating. That sours U.S.-Israeli relations, already stressed by the fact that Israel didn't inform Washington in advance of the strike. The White House tries to open a channel for talks with Iran, but is rejected.
Instead, Iran attacks Israel, both directly and through its proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It misinterprets U.S. actions as weakness and mines the Straits of Hormuz, the world's chief oil artery. That sparks a clash and a massive U.S. military reinforcement in the Persian Gulf.
This recent war game conducted at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, part of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, a center-left think tank, appears to dampen hopes for a simple solution to Iran's real-world nuclear challenge.
The lesson is "once you start this, it's really hard to stop it," said Kenneth Pollack, a former White House and CIA official who oversaw the simulation.
Pollack and others who participated in the day-long exercise late last year are quick to point out that war games are imperfect mirrors of reality. How Iran's notoriously opaque and fractious leadership would react in a real crisis is particularly hard to divine.
But the outcome underscores what diplomats, military officers and analysts have long said: even a "successful" airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities — setting the program back by two to four years — could come at a tremendous, unpredictable cost.
"It's ... an option that has to be looked at very, very, very carefully," a senior European diplomat said Friday. "Because we know what the results could be, and they could be disastrous." He requested anonymity to speak more frankly on the sensitive issue.
Tensions over Iran's nuclear program rose again this week after the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog reported that the country could be secretly developing a nuclear warhead to be placed atop a ballistic missile. Additionally, Iran has begun enriching uranium closer to the purity level needed for use in a nuclear weapon.
Israel, which sees Iran as a direct threat, has refused to rule out military force, although officials there say they are counting for now on diplomatic pressure. There have even been hints from Sunni Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, that they would look the other way in the event of a strike on Shiite Iran, a historic adversary.
Yet one of the Brookings war game's major conclusions is that Israel could pay dearly for an attack on Iran.
By the end of the simulation, eight days after the fictitious Israeli strike, Israel's prime minister, under heavy domestic pressure, is forced to launch a 48-hour air blitz in southern Lebanon to halt rocket attacks from Hezbollah, the militant group sponsored by Iran. Israeli officials know the blitz is unlikely to achieve its objectives, and prepare a larger, costlier operation in Lebanon, including ground forces.
Israel's relations with the United States, its most important ally, are damaged. To avoid damaging them further, Israel bows to intense U.S. pressure and absorbs occasional missile strikes from Iran without retaliating.
Some members of the "Israeli" team nonetheless felt that setting back Iran's nuclear program "was worth it, even given what was a pretty robust response," said one participant. He asked that his name not be used, because under the game's ground rules, participants are supposed to remain anonymous.
Jonathan Peled, an Israeli embassy spokesman, declined comment on the war game or its outcome.
"All we can say is that Iran constitutes a threat not only to Israel but to the region, to the US and to the world at large, and therefore should be addressed without delay by the international community, first and foremost through effective sanctions," he said.
The Brookings war game was one of three simulations regarding Iran's nuclear program conducted in December. The other two, at Harvard University and Tel Aviv University, reportedly found that neither sanctions nor threats dissuaded Tehran from its suspected nuclear weapons ambitions.
In the Brookings game, three teams of experts, including former senior U.S. officials, played the Israeli, Iranian and American leadership. They assembled in separate rooms at the think tank's Washington headquarters. Israeli and U.S. "officials" communicated with each other, but not with the Iranians.
One of the simulation's major findings was how aggressively the Iranians responded to the attack — more aggressively, some participants felt, than they would in real life — and how Washington and Tehran, lacking direct communication, misunderstood each other.
Iran did not retaliate directly against the United States or U.S. troops in Iraq or Afghanistan. But it struck back at Israel, then attacked Dharan in eastern Saudi Arabia, then began mining the Straits of Hormuz.
"There would be almost no incentive for Iran not to respond" with force, said another participant, a member of the Iranian team. "It was interesting to see how useful it was for Tehran to push the limits."
Without knowing it, Iran's last two actions crossed U.S. "red lines," prompting an American military response.
"No one came out on top — (but) arguably the Iranians," the Iran team member said.
The Tehran regime was also able to crush its domestic political opposition.
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American anti-Zionists hate Israel more than they love the United States.
If destroying Israel means damaging America, it is a price they will be thrilled to pay.
Comment by ayn reagan — April 23, 2010 @ 12:23 am
Ted who are you trying to convince that Israel is a net asset to America? Really who cares? What does it really matter in the wider scheme to things? Were German Jews a net asset to Germany? Did it help them if it were true? In all of Jewish history in the diaspora a case can be made that Jews were asset to the nations where they resided yet between the years 250 CE and 1948 CE - a period of 1,700 years - Jews have experienced more than eighty expulsions from various countries in Europe - an average of nearly one expulsion every twenty-one years. Jews were expelled from England, France, Austria, Germany, Lithuania, Spain, Portugal, Bohemia, Moravia and seventy-one other countries.
Wealth buys influence. Thirty years of oil wealth have given Arabs wealth that challenges Jewish riches acquired over the centuries. Technological advances create much of the capital today. The Jews’ traditional role as bankers is considerably diminished, along with a lot of Jewish lobbying leverage. The Saudis alone of all Muslims hold about a trillion dollars in United States assets. They buy more U.S. made weapons than Israel. Israel must be blind not to see she is losing Jewish economic advantage, stupid as well for giving up oil and gas fields of Sinai and not annexing them.
An Arab diaspora is occurring. Arabs have wealth, Western education, connections—and many of them are smart. Arabs make up important voting groups and have considerable political influence. As in Vietnam, an American defeat in Iraq may lead to an influx of Arab refugees. Arabs also occupy important posts in business and will eventually level the ground with Israelis in the competition for influence. Only Islam unites the Arabs, especially its aggressive fundamentalist strain. That is dangerous to Israel.
A Palestinian state would get a lot of United States aid and take Americans’ eyes off Israel, as happened in Egypt, now supported by many bureaucrats administering foreign aid and military assistance programs there.
Seems to me the only thing Israeli lobbyists can do is to show the consequences of withdrawing American support from Israel. Without American conventional weaponry, Israel would use the nuclear deterrent, which tempts Iran to generate nuclear programs with the likelihood that nuclear weapons will one day land in the hands of anti-American Islamic terrorists. If Israel lost American support, it would likely turn to Russia (as happened in 1948), France (as was the case until the 1960s)—and China. Whatever the choice, a country unfriendly if not hostile to the United States would influence the oil-producing Middle East (a magic word for gasoline addicts) and force concessions from America far in excess of what it now gives to Israel.
American support of Israel is not forever. The American military efforts in the Middle East conflict necessitate American cooperation with Arabs and dilutes partnership with Israel—a good reason Israel should have opposed the Iraqi invasion. Israel is mistaken to believe the United States would keep supporting Israel if only to prevent Israel from using nuclear weapons. There are other ways to stop Israel, most easily by offering American protection to Arabs in case of conflict with Israel.
America’s support for Israel is not built in. Alliances are based on concrete mutual interests, not metaphysics. France is more important for America in Europe than Israel in the Middle East, yet U.S.-French relations fluctuate wildly. Henry Kissinger brought the U.S. commitment to Israel to its current level to corner the Soviets with Israel; but that need has passed, and a determined Hussein Barak Obama could extinguish the American support for Israel.
The United States has walked away from allies before: the South Vietnamese, the Kurds. America stood by while the Soviets butchered the Czechs whom American-funded radio incited to revolt. France for years subverted an American client, the Shah of Iran, unopposed. Israel hopes she is different, but Israel is not, not for the American Protestant establishment.
America refused as little as bombing Nazi death camps to save the Jews, did not help Israelis threatened with annihilation in the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, and did not stop Arabs from launching the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, expected at the time to destroy or economically suffocate Israel. Israelis must be mad to count on America.
The support for Israel from some Christian fundamentalist groups also fuels the anti-Semitic sentiment of the rest. True, there were no major outbreaks of anti-Semitic violence even during the Great Depression, mainly because pogrom mobs need a feeling of invincibility, and they need tacit approval from the government. Though the US Administration is unlikely to incite against Jews, it does incite against Israel—which to the mob is the Jews. The government’s push for the peace process and the media’s out-of-context depiction of Palestinian hardships invariably set a significant part of the American population against Jews.
Anti-Semitism was open and strong in America before the ex-Jews took leading positions in the victorious liberal movement in the 1970s. To express anti-Semitism now is almost perceived as dangerous, especially in the business sphere, where Jews are numerous and influential.
Counter-intuitively, Jews who isolate themselves cause much less anti-Semitism than Jews who wholeheartedly embrace the surrounding society; Jews believe they are assimilated, but the Gentiles around recognize them for what they are—Jews, and bad ones at that.
People who abandoned their own roots, who hate their own heritage, who abandon the idea for which generations of their relatives ascended the Christian stakes and gallows—(they) can’t be good.
Jews, however assimilated, can never integrate into Gentile societies: they know those societies to be repressive, they fear Gentiles, and they work, consciously or otherwise, to subvert the existing societies. Thus the abundance of Jewish liberals who attack the traditional morals of every society. Germans of the pre-Nazi era feared Jews as communists bent on destroying their society; liberal Jews in America serve the very same role. American Jewish liberals were at the forefront of racial equality, affirmative action, gay rights, homosexual marriage, and many other developments which common Americans of the “moral majority” perceive as questionable assets, even a threat to their way of life and cherished values.
We site here many polls showing majority of American favorable opinions towards Israel but consider this: Probably in no country was anti-Semitism ever universal. A quarter of the population can do away with the Jews with the silent consent or natural indifference of the majority.
Comment by yamit82 — April 23, 2010 @ 7:39 am